Categories NBA

Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Thursday, June 6

We wrapped up the Conference Finals last week with a 2-0 sweep, cashing an Anthony Edwards over and a Mike Conley under, bringing us to a dominant 12-3 for the NBA’s penultimate round. We’re onto the NBA Finals, which are a whole different beast, as we look to sustain our 80% win rate. Let’s see if I can stay hot with the two NBA player prop picks I’ve dug up with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for Mavericks-Celtics Game 1.

Use our NBA betting model for more bets — or read our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!

NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kristaps Porzingis & More

React App

P.J. Washington Player Prop

It wasn’t long ago that P.J. Washington ripped off three-straight games with 20-plus points against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He then cooled off down the stretch of that series and remained cool during the Western Conference Finals. We’re backing him to stay cool tonight.

Washington has a basic shot profile: in the postseason, he has taken 2.6 above-the-break and 4 corner 3’s per game to go with 2.3 shots in the restricted area and 1.9 shots in the non-restricted paint. No player has taken more or made more corner 3’s in the postseason than Washington.

Unfortunately for him, the Boston Celtics don’t give up much from the corner. Boston has allowed 1.5 corner 3’s per game on 25% shooting this postseason. The Celtics have also limited opposing teams to just 14 made shots in the restricted area per game.

Use our explore page to find more trends like this one!

If the Celtics can limit Washington’s production from the corner and at the rim, he doesn’t have much left in his bag. Washington has converted just 29.5% of his shots from above the break and 39.4 of his shots from the non-restricted paint. Let’s fade Washington by backing him to stay under 12.5 points at DraftKings.

NBA Player Prop Pick: P.J. Washington Under 12.5 Points -130 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our P.J. Washington points live odds page!

Kristaps Porzingis Player Prop

Let’s turn to what our NBA player prop betting model recommends targeting tonight. With Kristaps Porzingis making his return to the lineup and a minutes restriction possible, it wants action on his under. Porzingis averaged 20.1 points per game in the regular season but is averaging only 12.3 per game in the playoffs (over a four-game sample, including the 14-minute performance in which he got hurt).

Still, some public books are looking to take advantage of the Porzingis hype by pricing his over at a juicy number — thereby creating value on the under. Specifically, BetRivers, UniBet and SugarHouse have an off-market -124 for the under 16.5, and that’s trading with the most positive expected value (+EV) of any NBA bet on the board:

The best NBA player prop bets and picks today for Thursday, June 6, include wagers on Kristaps Porzingis and P.J. Washington...

As you can see, the under 16.5 will cost you between -138 and -165 at every other public book. The under 15.5 will cost between -115 and -125, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -123. We’re essentially getting a free point of value for the same odds at Pinnacle.

The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.

Our tools have found 79 +EV NBA player points bets at Caesars this year with (a) two hours before the start of a game and (b) an OS Rating of 3 or better. A whopping 48 of those bets won, good for a 25.6% ROI. Let’s hope the tools keep winning at that rate and tail this bet today.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Kristaps Porzingis Under 16.5 Points -124 at BetRivers
For the best price currently available, see our Kristaps Porzingis points live odds page!

React App

OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Featured Articles

Related Articles