Tonight’s NBA card isn’t the best — we’ve got a bit too much in the way of injury news to consider — but it certainly isn’t terrible. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Jalen Green, Tyus Jones and Bradley Beal. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Green & More
Jalen Green Player Prop
The Houston Rockets get a home game against the Washington Wizards tonight. While the Rockets have been awful on the road, they’ve been exceptional at home, and Jalen Green is no exception to that rule. Green averages 18.8 points per game at home on splits of 43/33/79 but averages only 17.8 per game on the road on splits of 39/30/82.
The injury to Alperen Sengün leaves a massive void in the Houston offense. Sengün leads the team in usage rate this season (27%) and since the All-Star Break (27.2%). With him sidelined, Green’s usage rate jumps from 27% to 29.2% this season. It’s a small sample — Sengün has missed just two games that Green played in this season — but that’s a meaningful uptick.
The matchup versus the Wizards is a great spot for Green. It’s not breaking news that the Wizards are terrible, but it’s important to flag where they struggle the most. Over the last seven games, they have allowed the most points per game to shooting guards (25) to go with the most made field goals per game in the restricted area (20.9) and the second-most in the non-restricted paint (10.4).
Although Green takes plenty of shots from beyond the arc, he ranks second to Sengün in field goals made (2.9) and attempted (4.7) in the restricted area this season. He led the team in both categories in Houston’s most recent game, the team’s first since Sengün’s injury. We’re beating the market with the over 22.5 for -120 at Hard Rock, so pounce on that number before it gets bid off the board.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Green Over 22.5 Points -120 at Hard Rock
Tyus Jones Player Prop
We’re sticking around in this Wizards-Rockets game to play a Tyus Jones under. Although Jones is a great facilitator and gets plenty of volume with Jordan Poole now coming off the bench, getting the under 8.5 for +100 is too good of a deal to pass up, especially against a Rockets defense that has allowed the second-fewest assists per game to point guards this year (7.4) and the third-fewest over the last seven games (6).
OddsShopper Premium also loves this under for Jones today, and, from the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Jalen Green under today due to the glaring market inefficiency. The under 8.5 assists will cost you +100 (50%) at bet365, which is a better number than the true odds of -117 (53.9%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 8.5 for -131 (56.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyus Jones Under 8.5 Assists +100 at bet365
Bradley Beal Player Prop
The Phoenix Suns will visit the Boston Celtics before heading south to play the Charlotte Hornets in an east-coast swing. This spot is a brutal one for Phoenix, as the Celtics will get some extra nights off after this game to boot. Boston is a dominant 29-3 at home this year, and the team hasn’t lost in the Garden since February 1.
We’re fading Bradley Beal in this spot. If the game gets away from Phoenix early, they could opt to keep their star players fresh for tomorrow’s game against the Hornets. That means Beal’s range of outcomes is biased toward the under, and with his points, rebounds and assists prop (PRA) trading all the way up at 27.5, I’m eager to get action on the under.
Beal is averaging 17.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists alongside Devin Booker this season, good for 26.3 PRA. With the Celtics ranked second in defensive efficiency (110.4) and fourth in rebound rate (51.9%) this year, Beal may struggle to contribute in the box score.
I considered just playing Beal’s points because he relies somewhat on interior scoring to maintain his points-per-game average. Beal trails only Jusuf Nurkic in both shots made (2.7) and taken (4) per game in the restricted area, where Boston has allowed the third-fewest made field goals per game this year (15.3). The absence of Kristaps Porzingis may open up some more interior looks than usual, but the team’s efficient defense should be enough to keep Beal under this lofty total.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Bradley Beal Under 27.5 PRA +100 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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