Yesterday’s 2-1 performance (thank you, Paolo Banchero and Deni Avdija) brings us to 6-3 on the week. Can we keep the momentum rolling? Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Luka Doncic, Aaron Gordon and Andrew Nembhard. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +27.8u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Paolo Banchero & More
Aaron Gordon Player Prop
Few NBA players have as condensed a shot chart as Aaron Gordon. The veteran power forward almost exclusively shoots in the restricted area, averaging 6.3 field goal attempts per game from that zone, good for 63% of his total attempts — and 81.8% of his total made field goals. Gordon’s shot profile hasn’t evolved much in recent games, either — 54.5% of his attempts and 68.9% of his makes were in the restricted area over the last 15.
Gordon’s reliance on interior scoring makes his matchup with the Boston Celtics quite difficult. The Celtics are allowing the third-fewest made field goals per game in the restricted area this year (15.3) on the third-lowest conversion rate (63%). Those numbers improve to 14.2 and 61.7% over the last 15. This corresponds to the fewest points per game allowed to power forwards on the year (19.7) and over the last 15 (18.4).
I’m fading Gordon in the points and assists market for this game. In addition to shutting down the paint, the Celtics are also allowing the fifth-fewest assists per game (24.9) and the seventh-fewest over the last 15 games (25.2). Gordon’s points prop (13.5) and assists prop (2.5) combine to give us a line of 16.5 to work with, which he didn’t come close to in his last game against Boston, tallying two points and three assists.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Aaron Gordon Under 16.5 Points & Assists -120 at bet365
Andrew Nembhard Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers will play the stingy Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is out with a torn meniscus, which, while bad for Minnesota’s offense, will likely give better defensive players like Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson more floor time on Thursday. Minnesota is already giving up the fourth-fewest points per game to point guards (22.7) and the second-fewest to shooting guards (20.2) this year, so we’re fading Andrew Nembhard.
I like this under, as does OddsShopper Premium. From the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Andrew Nembhard under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 10.5 points will cost you -115 (53.5%) at PointsBet and Fanatics, which is a better number than the true odds of -129 (56.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 10.5 for -150 (60%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Andrew Nembhard Under 10.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
Luka Doncic Player Prop
Let’s wrap up today’s NBA player prop picks with my play for Luka Doncic. If you’ve been following my stuff consistently this year, you know that we often fade high-scoring players versus the Miami Heat, and Luka Doncic isn’t an exception to that rule tonight. His points prop is trading at a lofty 33.5 across the market right now, which is more than a bit too high in this spot.
Doncic is averaging 34.6 points per game on the year, but that number has spiked to 37.6 since the All-Star Break, creating a great sell-high spot for us. Miami’s defense doesn’t give up high-percentage looks, especially not to star players, so this matchup won’t be easy for him.
The Heat rank second in shots allowed per game in the restricted area (14.7) and ninth in shots allowed from above the break (9), zones where Doncic takes 58.8% of his shots and gets 58% of his makes. The last time that Miami’s two defensive anchors, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, played 30-plus minutes versus Doncic, he tallied just 21 points on splits of 26/29/75.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 33.5 Points -115 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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