We’re up to 13-5 since the start of last week on NBA player props. We cashed an over for Luguentz Dort and an under for Jayson Tatum last night to improve our record, and I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward into tonight’s card. I’ve dug up a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools, so let’s get straight into my NBA player prop picks for Anthony Edwards and Michael Porter Jr. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Edwards & More
Michael Porter Jr. Player Prop
I recommended buying low on Michael Porter Jr. before Game 5, and it didn’t work out. The forward scored only six points with shooting splits of 20/29/NA, which is less than ideal. Over the last two games, he has just 10 points on 29/22/NA. The books have cut his points prop to 13.5 as a result, but that’s too low for a player this talented.
MPJ’s averages point to some serious value here. Before his Game 4 disaster, he was averaging 20.5 points per playoff game on 52/48/76. He averaged 16.7 points on 48/40/84 in the regular season and 15.8 on 46/38/90 across four regular-season meetings with Minnesota. His utter collapse over the last two contests reads as variance.
Denver’s turnaround this series stems from Nikola Jokic figuring out the Timberwolves’ defense and beating Rudy Gobert. Jokic scored 35 in Game 4 and 40 in Game 5, taking scoring opportunities away from MPJ. But it wasn’t just Jokic cooking — Aaron Gordon also tallied 27 in Game 4 and 18 in Game 5. He produced both in the paint and beyond the arc.
This should be as low as we can buy Michael Porter Jr. this postseason. His prior postseason and regular-season numbers suggest he has far too much talent to keep struggling like this. It’s not like he’s drawing primary defensive coverage from Jaden McDaniels, either — Anthony Edwards has been on him, and that’s led to plenty of quality open looks that MPJ should be knocking down.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 Points -115 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Michael Porter Jr. points live odds page!
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
It may be difficult to conceive of fading Anthony Edwards with his season on the line, but that’s exactly what we’re doing tonight. Edwards kicked off the series with a massive 43-point performance on 59/43/100, but since then, he has averaged just 27 points per game on 56/40/78. He is also averaging 2.6 3-pointers per game this series after averaging 3.5 against the Suns but only 2.4 in the regular season.
This NBA player prop pick comes down to the odds we’re getting, however. Edwards’ 3-pointers prop total (2.5) is set to a fair number, but our NBA +EV betting tools reveal the price at BetMGM has plenty of positive expected value (+EV):
We can buy Edwards to go under 2.5 3-pointers for +105 at BetMGM and bet365 but nowhere else. Most other public books have this one priced between +100 and -110. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it for a far less generous -119.
Our NBA +EV betting tools estimate a fair market price (or “true odds”) for this bet to be -103, so there’s enough value here for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $17. Our tools work by indexing the odds across the market and factoring in book sharpness to spit out those true odds, and I have faith for tonight’s Edwards prop.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 2.5 3-Pointers +105 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, see our Anthony Edwards 3-pointers live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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