The first round of the NBA playoffs is rapidly nearing its end. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves have already punched their tickets. The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will look to add their names to that list tonight, but don’t expect the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers to just roll over. I’ve found two spots worth getting a unit on with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools today, so let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Khris Middleton and Myles Turner. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Khris Middleton & More
Khris Middleton Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks will look to stave off elimination again this evening, but they’ll have to do it on the road this time. With Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo still doubtful, it’s going to be the Khris Middleton show again tonight. After averaging 15.1 points per game in the regular season, the veteran wing has stepped up to average 26.8 in his larger postseason role.
Middleton’s average of 26.8 points per game stems from improved shooting splits just as much as it does increased volume. Middleton is shooting 50/37/90 this series, which is up from the 49/38/83 he shot in the regular season. For some added context, Middleton shot 44/32/90 last year and is a career 46/39/88 shooter.
His slightly increased efficiency probably isn’t sustainable, and it’s even less likely to be sustainable with him drawing the most defensive attention as the focal point of Milwaukee’s offense. Middleton hasn’t often had to play that role. He averaged 16.1 points per game without Giannis in the regular season (on splits of 51/38/84.
We’re getting this bet with positive expected value (+EV) relative to the market, too. Pinnacle is charging -137 for the under 26.5 points, but we can buy this wager for odds of -109 at Caesars. Lock this one in before the line moves.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Khris Middleton Under 26.5 Points -109 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Khris Middleton points live odds page!
Myles Turner Player Prop
We’re sticking with tonight’s Pacers-Bucks game for this pick from our NBA +EV betting tools. They advise us to fade Myles Turner on the 3-pointers market this evening at BetMGM due to the generous odds offered there. Turner is averaging 3.6 3-pointers per game this series but has needed to shoot 47% from deep to do so. With the under 2.5 trading for -110 at BetMGM, we’re getting too much +EV to pass up:
The -110 at BetMGM and DraftKings is beating almost the entire rest of the market. Just about every other public book has this one at about -120. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced at a far stingier -146, giving us just under seven percentage points of edge between the books.
Our NBA +EV betting tools index the odds from across the market; adjust them for book sharpness, hold and other factors; and project a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet. If you see a bet priced for odds longer than what the model believes the true odds are, you know that bet has +EV.
The tough part about taking a +EV approach to sports betting is that volume is the key — not every bet in our tools will win, but enough of them should win for you to make a profit over the long term. Just don’t get discouraged and trust our backtested simulations.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Myles Turner Under 2.5 3-Pointers -110 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, see our Myles Turner 3-pointers live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
