We crushed it yesterday, going 2-0 on NBA player props with winning tickets for both Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley, bringing us to 21-9 on NBA player props over the last three weeks. Can we improve our win rate above 70%? For tonight’s Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics, I’ve found two NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Jayson Tatum and Myles Turner. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More
Myles Turner Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers got a ton of production out of center Myles Turner in Game 1: he racked up 23 points and 10 rebounds. However, that production came on very high efficiency rates — he recorded shooting splits of 69/75/100 and nabbed 10 of his 17 rebound chances (58.8%).
In the regular season, Turner was much less efficient. He averaged 17.1 points on 52/36/77 and 6.8 rebounds on 12.9 chances (52.7%). When facing the Celtics, Turner averaged 14 points on 43/21/46 and seven rebounds on 12.4 chances (56.5%). All of those datapoints suggest his Game 1 was a massive outlier performance.
Turner’s points and rebounds total is trading at 23.5, a number he stayed under in four of five regular-season games against the Celtics — and in six of his last 10 starts. While the number didn’t increase by as wide of a margin as I would’ve liked, we can still sell high at a reasonable enough price. Let’s lock this one in for Game 2.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Myles Turner Under 23.5 Points & Rebounds -108 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Myles Turner points live odds page!
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
Jayson Tatum struggled in the first four quarters of Game 1, but he rallied with a big-time overtime performance, finishing the game with 36 points and 12 rebounds. However, those 12 rebounds came on only 15 rebound chances, which is an unsustainable 80% clip. Tatum averaged 8.1 rebounds on 11.8 chances (68.6%) in the regular season.
Our NBA player prop betting model advises fading Tatum on the rebounding market. Tatum is trading at odds of -104 at SuperBook. Meanwhile, most other public books have this bet set to odds between -105 and -140. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one at -132, so we know this wager has plenty of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools estimate that this bet should be priced at -121. That means any book offering a better price, like Hard Rock or DraftKings, is also posting a +EV wager — it just doesn’t have the same amount as the -104 at SuperBook.
That estimate is called the bet’s true odds (a breakeven price). The tools reach that conclusion by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to generate an estimate.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 10.5 Rebounds -104 at SuperBook
For the best price currently available, see our Jayson Tatum rebounds live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
