Well, it was a 1-1 Tuesday after Rudy Gobert nabbed a meaningless rebound with seconds left to bust our under 22.5 points and rebounds. At least we cashed Derrick Jones Jr. under 9.5 points. We’re now 9-3 on the conference finals (10-3 counting a series player prop for Jayson Tatum) and 28-11 over the last four weeks, keeping us above 70% but just barely. Let’s see if I can stay there with two NBA player prop picks I’ve dug up with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools.
Use our NBA betting model for more bets — or read our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Anthony Edwards & More
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
Anthony Edwards just nabbed 10 rebounds and racked up nine assists in his Game 4 win. He is now averaging 8.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game this series (17.1). While playing the over 14.5 is buying high, I actually think the increase in his production is sustainable.
Edwards is averaging 6.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists in the postseason (13.4) after averaging 5.4 and 5.1 in the regular season (10.5). His rebound and assist prop is now trading at 14.5 for tonight’s action because of his recent spike, but one wonders if that’s enough of an increase.
The underlying volume has increased for Edwards. He averaged 9.1 rebounding chances per game in the regular season, a number that has grown to 11 in the postseason and 14.8 this series. Likewise, his potential assists have grown from 8 to 10.7 and 13.3, respectively.
Everything suggests Edwards should continue to get boards and dish out assists at a rate better than his regular season averages. With Dallas struggling to stop the pick-and-roll and Edwards spending more of his time on the ball, I’m breaking one of my rules of NBA playoff player prop betting by buying high on him here. This number should be higher.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 14.5 Rebounds & Assists +100 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Anthony Edwards rebounds and assists live odds page!
Mike Conley Player Prop
This pick from our NBA player prop betting model is somewhat negatively correlated with the play above, but it has cashed in all four games this series, and it’s trading with the most positive expected value (+EV) of any NBA bet on the board.
Mike Conley is yet to score more than 10 points in this series but sports a prop total of 12.5. You’ll find the under trading at -119 on Caesars despite most books taking action on it between -120 and -150, which you can see in our tools below:
The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.
Our tools have found 79 +EV NBA player points bets at Caesars this year with (a) two hours before the start of a game and (b) an OS Rating of 3 or better. A whopping 48 of those bets won, good for a 25.6% ROI. Let’s hope the tools keep winning at that rate and tail this bet today.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Mike Conley Under 12.5 Points -119 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, see our Mike Conley points live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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