Yesterday’s NBA props column split 1-1, cashing a Pascal Siakam under but losing a Donte DiVincenzo over, bringing us to a profitable 4-2 since the start of the week. Tonight, we’ve back to two NBA games, with the Boston Celtics hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers early and the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Dallas Mavericks late. I’ve identified a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for tonight’s slate, so let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jaylen Brown & More
Luka Doncic Player Prop
I wrote about this at length in my Thunder-Mavericks Game 1 reactions and Game 2 preview, but Luka Doncic is not himself. After averaging 4.1 3-pointers per game on 10.6 attempts in the regular season, he’s now averaging 2.6 on 10.7 in the postseason and 1.6 on 9.8 over his last five.
There’s a chance that Doncic is just in a funk, but his probable tag due to a right knee sprain suggests it’s the injury, not bad luck, at play. As a result, I feel confident fading him as a perimeter shooter this evening, especially with his made 3’s total trading at 3.5. He hasn’t cleared that number since Game 2 of the Clippers series, and he still shot just 36% in the process.
It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Thunder have several excellent perimeter defenders. Luguentz Dort hounded Doncic in Game 1, holding him to 0-for-2 from deep in 6:11 of direct coverage. Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren chipped in to keep him to 1-for-6 over 7:26 of additional direct coverage.
This Luka Doncic under isn’t trading with positive expected value (+EV) at most books, but it’s clearing that threshold slightly in a few spots. The -117 at Tipico stands out as a sharp bet, as does the -120 at bet365. Both are clearing the -144 at Pinnacle substantially.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 3.5 3-Pointers -120 at bet365
For the best price currently available, check out our Luka Doncic 3-pointers live odds page!
Jaylen Brown Player Prop
Let’s turn to the Celtics game. In Game 1, Jaylen Brown cooked the Cleveland Cavaliers for a ridiculous 32 points. More ridiculous were his shooting splits of 67/67/100, which far exceed what he averaged in the first round (52/32/45) and in the regular season (50/35/70).
Buy low, sell high — that’s the name of the game with Brown tonight. He averaged 23 points per game in the regular season and is averaging 24.3 in the postseason. With his total trading at 25.5, our NBA +EV betting tools have spotted off-market numbers for his prop at SuperBook and DraftKings, giving us plenty positive expected value (+EV):
You’ll find Brown’s under at odds of -112 at SuperBook and -115 at DraftKings. Just about every public book has a much less generous price: this bet is trading within the -120 to -140 range pretty much everywhere. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one at odds of -140, too.
The model estimates that the true odds of this wager clock in at -121. The model reaches this conclusion by indexing the odds across the sports betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; then spitting out those true odds, also known as a breakeven price.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 3.5 3-Pointers -120 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Jaylen Brown points live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
