Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Nov. 16

Chris Paul Player Prop

Stephen Curry is hurt. Draymond Green is suspended. That leaves the Golden State Warriors with few options at point guard other than Chris Paul. The veteran has tallied just two games with 10-plus assists with the Warriors this year, but one of them came against the Oklahoma City Thunder — and both Green and Curry were active for that one!

Paul should go off in the assist column tonight. Although he is averaging only 7.3 assists, that’s on 15.9 potential assists. The absence of Curry and Draymond frees up a total of 9.6 assists and 16.8 potential assists because the duo ranks second and third in those metrics, respectively, behind Paul. Kevon Looney is next in both with 2.7 on six.

Josh Giddey Player Prop

The Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to beat the Warriors tonight, but Josh Giddey should stay under a lofty rebounding prop. He is averaging only 5.8 boards per game this year, down considerably from the 7.9 he averaged last year, but the changes to Oklahoma City’s lineup mean that makes sense: Giddey is now competing with Chet Holmgren on the glass.

The splits point to value here as well. Giddey is averaging 0.5 fewer rebounds per game on the road than at home this year and 0.3 fewer for his career. He has tallied rebounding totals of four, seven and six in Golden State since his rookie year.

Our NBA betting tools want action on this Josh Giddey under today. With his rebound total set to 6.5 at -113, the pricing disparity across the market points to serious value on the under. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under at -149, which is far below where all the public books are taking action on it.

The -113 (53.1%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds for this wager of -124 (55.4%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!

NBA Player Prop Pick: Josh Giddey Under 6.5 Rebounds -113 at FanDuel

Bam Adebayo Player Prop

The Miami Heat will take on the Brooklyn Nets this evening. The Nets are down Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas while the Heat are down Tyler Herro. Oddly, the books have opened the bidding on Bam Adebayo rebound props at 11.5. Adebayo is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game against the Nets since 2021-22.

The books are likely listing this prop at such a high number because Adebayo exploded for 14 boards against the Nets earlier this month. However, Brooklyn was without Nicolas Claxton for the matchup, and backup center Day’Ron Sharpe played less than 15 minutes. The Nets have since gotten Claxton back and increased Sharpe’s workload.

Adebayo is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game on 17.7 rebound chances this season. Last year, he averaged 9.2 on 15.5. We’re able to get the under 11.5 at odds of -130 (56.5%). He has stayed under that number 70% of the time this year and did so 74.7% of the time last year.

It’s not like the Nets are a bad rebounding team. Sure, they’re down Ben Simmons, who leads the starting lineup in rebound rate (17.8%), but they have Sharpe (24.9%) and Claxton (17.7%), both of whom are outperforming Adebayo in the metric this year (16.6%). The Nets have allowed the seventh-fewest rebounds per game to centers (13.6) on the year as well.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 11.5 Rebounds -118 at FanDuel