We put together a decent 2-1 showing in yesterday’s column, but my non-article picks didn’t fare quite so well. That’s fine, we’ll get back on the saddle and try to engineer a winning NBA player prop card tonight. Let’s get right into my top three NBA player prop picks for this evening’s action. If you’re hungry for more bets, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
Best NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Myles Turner & More
Myles Turner Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled to defend the perimeter all season, and players from all walks of life and positions have put together big games against them from beyond the arc. Cam Thomas dropped six 3-pointers on Monday. Isaiah Stewart knocked in a pair last night. Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes combined for nine last week. Opposing teams are converting 35.8% of their 3-pointers for 13.1 per game.
Myles Turner stands out as one of the Indiana Pacers likeliest to benefit from the matchup. Last year, Turner averaged three 3-pointers per game against the Bucks, recording totals of five, two and two. Milwaukee’s starting center, Brook Lopez, was active for the first of those two games. Turner has made multiple 3-pointers in all of his games against the Bucks without former Pacer Domantas Sabonis since 2019.
Turner’s 3-pointers prop sits at a steady 1.5, which is in line with where it’s been all year — and where it was most of last year. Turner is averaging 1.5 3-pointers per game this year, which is exactly what he has averaged every year since 2020-21. However, one final source of edge is the fact the Pacers will play this one in Indianapolis. Turner averaged 1.6 3-pointers per home game last year with a 1.7% better conversion rate. He is averaging 1.8 3-pointers per home game this year with a 35.3% higher conversion rate as well.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Myles Turner Over 1.5 3-Pointers +105 at DraftKings
Clint Capela Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks have been an interesting team to watch this year, especially from a personnel decision perspective. Head coach Quin Snyder has two extremely talented young players in his backcourt, power forward Jalen Johnson and center Onyeka Okongwu, and their minutes necessarily trade off with those for veteran Clint Capela, whose minutes are down to 24.7 from 26.6 a year ago.
Capela may be averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, but with his minutes scaled back, that’s requiring him to average 15.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. Capela averaged only 14.9 rebounds per 36 last year and has maintained a pace of 15.2 or higher in just two of his 10 NBA seasons.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Clint Capela under today. You’ll find his rebound total set to 9.5 — slightly less than his season average (10.4) but far more than his average against the Magic last year (8.3). Orlando ranks just 21st in pace and is seventh in team rebound rate (52.2%), so Capela may struggle to stuff the stat sheet with rebounds.
The +102 (49.5%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds of -108 (51.9%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Clint Capela Under 9.5 Rebounds +102 at FanDuel
Dejounte Murray Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks are off to a decent 4-3 start to the year, but tonight’s game with the 4-3 Orlando Magic will go a long way to help us determine just how decent these two Southeast Division franchises really are. I expect big things from the backcourt pairing of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
The Magic are listing point guard Markelle Fultz as questionable for this one, so it could be another big dose of Cole Anthony in store for us. Murray is averaging two steals per game when starting against Fultz and 2.7 steals per game when starting against Anthony. Murray has recorded multiple steals against the Magic in all of his games against them since the start of the 2021-22 season.
While it’s true that the Magic have been playing slower and have generally looked more efficient, they have benefited from facing defenses that struggle to swipe the ball — five of their seven opponents rank bottom-10 in steals per game. Their other two games came against top-10 units in steals per game, and those saw them cough up 16 total steals, 11 of which went to guards like Murray.
You’ll find the best odds for this NBA player prop available via bet365. Murray is priced at +140 to go over 1.5 steals there. If you haven’t signed up for bet365, check out our bet365 bonus code for up to $1,000 in bonus bets!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 1.5 Steals +140 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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