We doubled down with two unders for the Los Angeles Lakers last night, but, like Spencer Dinwiddie, we missed them both. The injury to Anthony Davis didn’t keep him from going over on rebounds, and it likely helped LeBron James go over on points. Still, we’re sitting at 4-2 over the last three days, and I think we can get to 6-2 tonight. I’ve found two spots worth getting a unit on with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools today, so let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Jalen Suggs and Jalen Brunson. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Brunson & More
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
Few players have improved their stock more over the last year than point guard Jalen Brunson. He’s now coming off a dominant 47-point showing in Game 4 as the New York Knicks look to clinch the series against the Philadelphia 76ers. But even though I’ve been impressed by Brunson’s work this season, I’m fading him on the points market tonight. Buy low, sell high.
Brunson is an incredible scorer, but he can’t keep scoring at this pace. He is averaging 33 points per game for the series on shooting splits of 41/26/82, which, while not unsustainable, reveals that he has required a ton of volume to put points on the board. He attempted 34 field goals in Game 4 alone. But while Burnson is comfortable being a ball-dominant scorer on the road, he usually steps back at home.
This season, Brunson’s road usage rate (33.4%) meaningfully exceeded his home usage rate (32%), and that difference corresponded to a 1.6-point drop in his per-game average. With New York’s role players returning to a more comfortable environment, I suspect the star point guard will be a bit more deferential to his teammates as he was in the regular season.
The 76ers, for all their flaws, should be able to contain Brunson. They rank ninth in points allowed per game to point guards (23.3). Brunson averaged only 22.3 points per game against them in the regular season on shooting splits of 40/30/88. With the entire season on the line for Philadelphia, don’t expect them to let Brunson send them home.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 33.5 Points +102 at BetRivers
For the best price currently available, check out our Jalen Brunson points live odds page!
Jalen Suggs Player Prop
As the Orlando Magic head back to Ohio to face the Cleveland Cavaliers, our NBA +EV betting tools recommend taking this opportunity to fade Jalen Suggs. The guard averaged only 2.7 assists per game in the regular season but is averaging 3.8 per game this series. This assist prop is trading at 3.5, which is fair, but we’re getting too much positive expected value (+EV) to pass up at Hard Rock:
Suggs will cost you only -115 to stay under the 3.5-assist mark. That’s beating the price at every other public book, most of which have this bet priced at -130 or steeper. Although Pinnacle hasn’t opened the bidding on this one, Caesars’ line of -131 gives me confidence in this under.
Our NBA +EV betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the sports betting landscape; adjusting them for hold, book sharpness and other factors; and projecting a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet. Whenever you see a bet trading for longer odds than its true odds, you know it has +EV.
The tough part about taking a +EV approach to sports betting is that volume is truly the key. Not every bet in our t tools will win, but enough of them should win for you to make a profit over the long term. Just don’t get discouraged and trust our backtested simulations.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Suggs Under 3.5 Assists -115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, see our Jalen Suggs assists live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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