After a night off for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament finale, the NBA returns with a jam-packed Tuesday slate. While not every game is meaningful at this point of the year, value remains to be exploited on the betting markets. I’ve dug up two high-value spots to attack with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium, and in Tuesday’s article, I’ll lay out my NBA player prop picks for De’Aaron Fox and DeMar DeRozan.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for De’Aaron Fox & More
DeMar DeRozan Player Prop
When I cracked open OddsShopper Premium this morning, I saw one DeMar DeRozan bet trading with positive expected value (+EV): his points prop, which is set to a generous 25.5 in today’s matchup with the New York Knicks. Instead of playing that line, I advise buying him to stay under 28.5 points and rebounds for -105 at DraftKings.
The Knicks might be the NBA’s best defensive team when OG Anunoby is on the floor. The returns were somewhat limited in his first game back, which came against these same Chicago Bulls, but he was only on the floor for 28 minutes. Still, DeRozan only mustered 20 points and five rebounds in 42 minutes of action.
Anunoby returned to a 36-plus minute workload in his most recent game, and New York scored an impressive comeback win over the Milwaukee Bucks. We can expect him to have a similar workload tonight, especially with New York scheduled for an off day tomorrow.
Since the All-Star Break, the Knicks rank sixth in defensive rating (109.8) and 30th in pace (93.3), limiting their opponents’ opportunities to record counting stats. They have allowed the third-fewest rebounds (41.3) and second-fewest points (103.2) through that span.
The Knicks have held DeRozan in check over their last few meetings with the Bulls. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, DeRozan is averaging only 23.8 points and 4.8 rebounds (28.6) over a five-game sample. With Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson back in the lineup, expect a below-average night from the veteran forward.
NBA Player Prop Pick: DeMar DeRozan Under 28.5 Points & Rebounds -105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our DeMar DeRozan points and rebounds live odds page!
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
With my top NBA player prop out of the way, let’s look at the best bet I saw on OddsShopper Premium today. When betting on NBA player props, I have a routine: I look at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all before beginning my research. This De’Aaron Fox player prop was at the top of the board when I opened the model, and I immediately added it to my betting card. Click here find out how you can access the same tools I use for just $1!
Fox and the Sacramento Kings have a road matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder today. The Thunder are jockeying for the top seed in the Western Conference while the Kings are trying to get back out of the play-in tournament. With the Thunder ranked a steady 10th in defensive rating since the All-Star Break (112.4) — and second in points allowed to point guards over the last 15 games (18.9), Fox may struggle to do damage tonight.
Our tools’ process is far less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the lines from across the market; adjusts for factors such as book sharpness, hold, and more; and uses those odds to generate a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. When a bet is available for longer odds than the true odds, it’s time for us to bet, as is the case with this Fox wager today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can do so for $1 for your first week with promo code “MASTERS”. That’s far less expensive than the +EV tools that our competitors are offering, even after the discount ends!
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 27.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our De’Aaron Fox points live odds page.
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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