It was another nice night for us yesterday — we lost our Fred VanVleet prop but more than made up for it with a Russell Westbrook assists ladder and a Jarrett Allen under. My full NBA cards are now up to 117-86-3 (+33.4u) on the year, and if you want access to them in real time, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. This evening brings us a frustrating slate full of teams on the wrong end of back-to-back sets, but I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jrue Holiday, Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan already. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jrue Holiday & More
Jrue Holiday Player Prop
The Boston Celtics take on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Cavs just lost to the Orlando Magic last night despite playing Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland for 36-plus minutes apiece. Evan Mobley was out, but Jarrett Allen got into early foul trouble and played just 15 minutes. Anyway, we’re betting on a Jrue Holiday over.
The Cavs have struggled to stop opposing point guards, and with so many weapons to worry about in Boston, they’ll continue to struggle tonight. Cleveland is allowing the fifth-most points per game to point guards (25.9), which isn’t great, but it gets worse when they don’t have a day off.
We’ve seen the Cavs in this spot four times already, and the starting point guard on the opposing team has gone for no less than 15 points. Dennis Schröder got 15, Kyle Lowry got 28, Jalen Brunson got 24 and Tyrese Haliburton got 21.
I doubt Holiday explodes for a 20-plus point showing, but we just need him to tally 13 to cash the over on his points prop. While Cleveland will have to think carefully about personnel usage, Boston won’t — the Celtics don’t play again until Thursday, when they’ll kick off a back-to-back set in a rematch of tonight’s contest. Holiday has cleared the 13-point threshold in 10 of his 19 games this year, including seven of his nine starts at home, so I have faith that he’ll keep things rolling in the Garden tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday Over 12.5 Points -113 at FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis Player Prop
The Sacramento Kings just waxed the Brooklyn Nets last night, but they still gave Domantas Sabonis 34 minutes. He turned his usage into 15 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists. I don’t expect another big showing on the boards from him tonight. Sabonis is averaging just 7.5 rebounds per game without rest over a two-game sample. Although he averaged 13.7 rebounds per game without rest last year, OddsShopper Premium and I are fading Sabonis on the glass tonight. He hasn’t tallied more than 10 rebounds against the Los Angeles Clippers since he got traded from the Indiana Pacers.
Statistical output aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Domantas Sabonis under today entirely because of the pricing disparity. The +100 (50%) on BetMGM is worse than the true odds for this wager of -109 (52.2%) and the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, of -122 (55%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 12.5 Rebounds +100 at BetMGM
DeMar DeRozan Player Prop
I faded DeMar DeRozan when his points prop was still trading at 25.5. It’s down to 24.5 now, but we’re still getting a decent enough price to warrant a wager. DeRozan, whose Bulls are coming off an overtime loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, takes on a Denver Nuggets team that just handled the Atlanta Hawks last night.
DeRozan just played a season-high 42 minutes. The last time we saw DeRozan go for 40-plus, he scored just 20 the next night. Asking the 34-year-old wing — who is actively in trade conversations, by the way — to play big minutes in back-to-back nights is a huge ask. Getting him to actually score in those minutes is a bigger one.
While DeRozan’s usage will benefit from the continued absence of Zach LaVine, the 34-year-old has scored 25-plus points just six times this year. He has stayed under that number twice in five games with LaVine sidelined, but we’re yet to see him play without LaVine and without rest. Denver is a 7.5-point favorite tonight, and I suspect the Bulls will tap out from this game early.
NBA Player Prop Pick: DeMar DeRozan Under 24.5 Points -105 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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