We kept things rolling on Monday with a 2-1 showing, cashing our unders for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaren Jackson Jr. but losing our James Harden under by a single assist. My full NBA cards improved to 138-113-3 (+35.1u) on the year after last night. If you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Derrick White. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kevin Durant & More
Kevin Durant Player Prop
The Phoenix Suns have had to lean heavily on Kevin Durant early this season with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal often on the shelf. While Booker has been more reliable lately, Beal will remain shelved for a few weeks. But even though Durant is in a huge-usage role, we’re fading him against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Phoenix is a 7-point road favorite in this spot. The market expects the Suns to pretty much control this game, and I generally agree. That should keep Durant from having to take lower-percentage looks on the perimeter. He took only two 3-pointers in his last game against Portland, which Phoenix took by a double-digit margin.
Portland’s defense is a layup funnel. On a per-game basis, the Blazers allow the second-fewest made shots from above the break (8), the eighth-fewest from the corner (2.9) and the fewest from mid-range (3.4) — in no small part because they also allow the fifth-most in the restricted area (20.2) and ninth-most in the non-restricted paint (8.2).
With the Blazers surrendering so many high-percentage looks, I’m fading Durant from beyond the arc.
Perimeter shooting is a definite part of Durant’s game, but it’s not like it’s something he looks to do all that often. Durant has attempted only 4.7 3-pointers per game this year. While has made an astounding 47.1% of those attempts, that is neither sustainable (his career conversion rate is 38.7%) nor that productive — 47.1% of 4.7 is still just 2.2 3-pointers per game. You can buy Durant at odds of -150 (60%) at DraftKings to stay under the 2.5 tonight, and I advise you to do so.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kevin Durant Under 2.5 3-Pointers -150 at DraftKings
Klay Thompson Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors will play the Boston Celtics on TNT tonight. The Celtics have to play the Sacramento Kings tomorrow. The Warriors won’t play again until Friday, but this also marks their fourth game in three days. Chris Paul has picked up a questionable tag. With Draymond Green now suspended, it could be down to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the prospects (especially since Andrew Wiggins has basically disappeared). But despite their higher-volume roles, I want action on a plus-money under for Thompson, and OddsShopper Premium does, too.
Thompson is averaging exactly three 3-pointers per game this year. However, he has tallied four or more just nine times in 25 starts. When playing a third game in four days this year, Thompson has shot just 36.8% from beyond the arc.
Statistics and scheduling aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Klay Thompson under today because of the pricing disparity. The +130 (43.5%) at bet365 for the under 3.5 is worse than the true odds for this wager of +108 (48.1%).Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced down at -101 (50.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Klay Thompson Under 3.5 3-Pointers +130 at bet365
Derrick White Player Prop
As mentioned above, the Boston Celtics are kicking off a back-to-back set tonight. They’ll make the short trip to Sacramento on Wednesday for what will be their third game in four days. Expect very deliberate personnel deployment tonight.
We’re fading Derrick White in the assist column tonight for three reasons. First, he is a lower-volume guy than how the market is framing him. On a per-game basis, White ranks third on the Celtics in potential assists (7.6) but somehow leads the team in actual assists (5.1). I don’t think that’s sustainable.
Second, Golden State’s defense has kept assisted shots to a minimum. The Warriors rank eighth in assists allowed per game (25) and first in assists allowed per game to shooting guards (3.8), where White has spent 84% of his minutes this year.
Third, White has had plenty of chances to dish out assists against Golden State with Boston but is yet to do so. Across three regular-season meetings, White has averaged 2.3 assists per game with a high of four. Over a six-game playoff sample, White averaged 2.2 assists with a high of three.
Of course, Golden State is in a precarious position due to both rest and depth issues, which could give Boston’s offense a boost. Still, White’s assist-to-potential assist ratio of 67.1% ranks sixth-highest among players who average 30-plus minutes per game, which leads me to believe both his prop total (4.5) and per-game average (5.1) are too high. I’m reverse-laddering this down to 3.5 for +180 at ESPNBet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Derrick White Under 4.5 Assists -113 for FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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