We started the week off right with a 3-0 sweep, cashing unders for Tyrese Maxey and Jaren Jackson Jr. along with an over for Nikola Vucevic. For today, Tuesday, February 13, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerami Grant and Giannis Antetokounmpo. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +23.5u on the season. I also have a bet against the spread that you can read about in today’s odds analysis. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & More
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
Keeping track of the NBA schedule is crucial for days like today. That’s what we do in my odds analysis article, and a quick look at things reveals that today marks the final game for the Oklahoma City Thunder before the All-Star Break. They’re playing their third game in four days, but all of their players will be getting over a week of rest — not counting the All-Star festivities themselves, at least.
As such, it’s a good spot to buy overs for Oklahoma City’s starters, and we’re locking in on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander due to his shot profile. The Orlando Magic have played solid defense this year, as they rank fourth in defensive rating (111.7), but they’re vulnerable in two key zones: the mid-range and non-restricted paint.
How vulnerable has Orlando been in those areas? In terms of field goals allowed per game, Orlando ranks 21st in the mid-range (4.5) and 17th in the non-restricted paint (7.8). Things have gotten worse lately. Over the last seven games, Orlando ranks 21st (4.6) and 27th (10.9).
SGA is dominant from those zones, which his shot chart reveals. He shoots 2-for-4 (50%) from mid-range and 3.2-for-6.2 (51.3%) from the non-restricted paint on a per-game basis. That production has helped him average 31.1 points per game this year, a somewhat deceptive number, as he has cleared the 31-point mark in 35 of his 52 (67.3%) appearances. I bought the over 30.5 for -125 at Hard Rock this morning; now, I only see it trading for -140 at ESPNBet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points -140 at ESPNBet
Jerami Grant Player Prop
The Portland Trail Blazers will host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and again on Thursday. While Minnesota is playing its second game in two nights, don’t expect their talented core to just take the night off. Minnesota is 5-4 with a rest disadvantage and 3-2 without rest. OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the points market for Jerami Grant today, and our model has an ROI of 8.1% on NBA player prop bets for points at Fanatics this season when you wager two hours before tip. for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 22.5 is priced at -115 (53.5%) at Fanatics, which is worse than the true odds of -123 (55.2%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 21.5 for -116 (53.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jerami Grant Under 22.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
We’ve got the collision of two sharp angles in tonight’s game between the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks. For one, the Heat excel at locking down their opponents’ lead scoring options, and while the injury to Jimmy Butler will hurt their performance, Bam Adebayo and Haywood Highsmith are both active.
The Bucks are also coming off a win over the Denver Nuggets that saw Giannis Antetokounmpo play 30 minutes and score 36 points. Giannis started the season with several big games in the second games of back-to-backs, but he has stayed under the 30.5 in four of his last six games in this scheduling spot.
Further, unlike the Thunder, the Bucks will have to play another game before the All-Star Break — they’ll visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday, so don’t expect Doc Rivers to get overly aggressive with minutes for his superstars in this spot.
In 18 career starts versus Adebayo, Giannis has crossed the 31-point mark just four times. He owns a per-game average of only 21.6 points in those contests, which feature more sub-20-point performances than 30-plus-point ones. I’m backing him to stay under 30.5 points for -115 at Fanatics.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 31.5 Points -115 at Fanatics
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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