After cleaning up on Saturday, we faceplanted with an 0-3 showing on Monday — but we were the hook away from nearly breaking even due to our 1.5-unit play on Domantas Sabonis. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Alperen Sengün, Wendell Carter Jr. and Coby White. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards dipped to 277-271-16 (+26.4u) on the season last night. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Alperen Sengün & More
Wendell Carter Jr. Player Prop
Although Wendell Carter Jr. will probably never live up to his draft status as a former seventh-overall pick, he is an incredibly valuable role player for the Orlando Magic. WCJ takes smart shots and delivers when called upon, as his steady shooting splits of 52/40/74 suggest. Although the shot volume has ticked down since the arrival of Paolo Banchero, opposing defenses are also paying less attention to him.
The Miami Heat should sell out to stop Banchero, and, to a lesser extent, Franz Wagner tonight. That should give Carter Jr. a handful of open looks to exploit, especially in the corner, where Miami is allowing an NBA-worst 5.6 shots per game over the last 10 on a 53.3% conversion rate. WCJ has been lethal from the corner this year, albeit on limited volume, averging 0.4 makes on a single attempt per game.
Of course, Carter Jr. has more in his bag than just corner 3-pointers, and we’ll need him to add on some layups or mid-range shots to cash the over 10.5 points tonight. Fortunately, his recent games against the Heat suggest he should deliver — he is averaging 16.4 points per game versus Miami with Banchero in the starting lineup, going over the 10.5 in all but one contest.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. Over 10.5 Points -112 at FanDuel
Coby White Player Prop
The Minnesota Timberwolves will visit the Chicago Bulls tonight, and, with the trade deadline on Friday, one wonders what exactly the Bulls are cooking. OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the points market for Chicago’s Coby White. The model has an ROI of 9.1% for all props over at BetMGM this season — at least when you place them 12 hours before tip-off. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Coby White under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 22.5 is priced at only -110 (52.4%) at BetMGM — which is worse than the true odds of -121 (54.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 22.5 for -138 (58%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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Marked-based reasoning aside, Minnesota leads the NBA in efficiency rating (108.2) and ranks 25th in pace (98.4). The team also leads the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last seven (103.4) while playing at the 25th-ranked pace (97), allowing the fifth-fewest points per game to point guards (20.5) and the seventh-fewest to shooting guards (21.1).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Coby White Under 22.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
Alperen Sengün Player Prop
Alperen Sengün has been a mainstay of this column this season, and with Fred VanVleet ruled out for tonight’s game against the Indiana Pacers, he lands on our shortlist again. The Pacers have struggled versus opposing bigs all year, first in the points column, and more recently in the assists column. Indiana ranks 24th in assists allowed per game to centers over the last seven (5.8) and 30th over the last 15 (6.1). The Pacers rank 26th on the season (4.7).
Point centers like Sengün have cooked versus Indiana. Nikola Jokic averaged 9.5 assists per game against them over a two-game sample. Domantas Sabonis averaged 8.5. While not massively higher than their season averages, both centers still performed above their average rates versus the Pacers, and now Sengün gets to play them with his primary competition for assists out of the lineup.
Sengün tallied five assists versus Indiana with VanVleet in the mix earlier in the year with VanVleet dishing nine.
Sengün has executed as a passer without VanVleet. He has played two games without him this season, tallying four assists in 28 minutes versus Denver and 10 assists in 36 minutes versus Boston, good for 0.22 assists per minute. At that rate, he would need to play just 25 minutes tonight to surpass his assist prop total of 5.5. It’s also worth noting that Boston and Denver are top-12 teams by defensive rating and play at below average paces — Indiana is a bottom-five defense and plays at the second-fastest pace. I’m laddering him to 10 (+700 at FanDuel) through 8 (+260 at Hard Rock) in what could be a smash spot.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengün Over 5.5 Assists -120 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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