Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Tuesday, January 16

Jamal Murray Player Prop

The Denver Nuggets will visit the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The 76ers just played the Houston Rockets early on Monday afternoon, so while it is a back-to-back, they will have had an extra few hours of rest. The Nuggets are coming off a full day off, beating the Pacers at home on Sunday.

Jamal Murray is a sharp fade today. While the Nuggets have listed most of their starting five as probable, which could lead to Murray playing without Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon, I’m not worried about that outcome — and I suspect Murray would be the first of their three probable players to sit, anyway.

Murray’s point total sits at 23.5. He is averaging 20.6 points per game on the year and 22.1 on the road. His median on the year (20) and in away games (21) both point to value, too. Although Murray’s scoring picked up in December and early January, it’s been on shooting splits of 50/37/85. He has never shot better than 47.7% from the field, so some regression should be in the cards.

Philadelphia has been a tough matchup for point guards. They have allowed the second-fewest points per game to the position this year (22.5) at the fewest through the last 15 games (20.1).

The Suns will play the Sacramento Kings tonight. While the Kings aren’t a great defensive team, they’re not giving up a ton of assists to wings (the Suns are using Beal at the two and three). They rank seventh in assists per game to twos (4.8) and 12th to threes (3.9).

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Bradley Beal under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 4.5 is priced at only +120 (45.5%) at ESPNBet — which is worse than the true odds of +107 (48.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 4.5 priced down at -102 (50.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Russell Westbrook Player Prop

The Los Angeles Clippers won’t have center Ivica Zubac tonight. While that usually wouldn’t affect the game of a bench point guard like Russell Westbrook, it did in the first game Zubac missed. Westbrook played 29 minutes, nabbed eight rebounds and dished 13 assists in that contest. I expect a similar uptick in his performance tonight.

The Clippers will play the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Thunder just fell to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Although they have played efficient defense this year, this is a rock-bottom number that Westbrook has cleared in all three of his appearances against them with the Clippers, including a 13-rebound, four-assist showing earlier this season.

For all of OKC’s defensive successes, they haven’t limited point guards on the glass or as passers. The Thunder have coughed up the seventh-most rebounds per game to ones (6.7) and 16th-most assists (8.8). That’s more than vulnerable enough to warrant a wager on Westbrook — once a triple-double machine — to tally at least 10 combined assists and rebounds.