Well, we can’t win them all. We lost our Giannis Antetokounmpo ladder and our Miles Bridges under, but we at least cashed a Cade Cunningham under that was never in doubt. My NBA cards are now 176-151-10 (+35.3u) on the year as our losing skid continues. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Brandon Ingram, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Desmond Bane. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Brandon Ingram & More
Brandon Ingram Player Prop
The New Orleans Pelicans will host the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Nets will have to travel for a road date with the Houston Rockets tomorrow, so they’re in a bit of a tough scheduling spot. Wednesday’s game will be their third in three days and fourth in six. They’ll have to play again on Friday, too.
With the Nets in a bit of a bind scheduling-wise, I’m backing wing Brandon Ingram for a big night. Brooklyn’s defense has been decent in the paint but atrocious from mid-range and above the break, which are two of Ingram’s highest-volume zones.
Ingram takes 5.9 mid-range field goals and 3.4 above-the-break field goals per game, which constitute 53.4% of his shots on a per-game basis. He converts an absurd 48.9% of his mid-range looks and a reasonable 34% of his above-the-break looks.
No one in New Orleans is better equipped to exploit Brooklyn’s defensive woes than Ingram. The Nets are allowing the second-most points per game to small forwards (24.2) this year and the third-most through the last seven games (25.6). Ingram has spent slightly more of his time at shooting guard than small forward this year, but his shot profile points to a big game in this spot.
Ingram’s points prop is trading at 24.5 across the market with the over priced at -110 on ESPNBet. Ingram has crossed the 25-point mark in 14 of 30 games — and in 11 of 25 with Zion Williamson. Although the hit rate isn’t great, We need just a slightly above-average performance from him to cash the over tonight, and I think we’ll get that here. I’m wagering 1.5 units on this one.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Ingram Over 24.5 Points -110 at ESPNBet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Boston Celtics tonight before visiting the Atlanta Hawks tomorrow. Wednesday’s game will be their third in three days and fourth in six. Like the Nets, they’ll also have to play again on Friday. Superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t have to play a ton of extra minutes in those recent games, but the Thunder could remain vigilant about his workload tonight. Against a Boston Celtics team that ranks third in defensive rating (110.4) and fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.8), I’ve got to fade him here, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
Matchup and scheduling aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 32.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -120 (54.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 25.5 priced down at -140 (58.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points -105 at DraftKings
Desmond Bane Player Prop
The Memphis Grizzlies will host the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They will host the Toronto Raptors tomorrow, and, are you starting to sense a theme in today’s column? We’re fading wing Desmond Bane in what should devolve into a blowout early. The Spurs are trading as an 11-point underdog to the also-bad Grizzlies.
San Antonio’s defense doesn’t do much well, but opposing wings haven’t been the biggest problem. The Spurs are coughing up the most points per game to point guards (28.4) and the fourth-most to centers (25.2). They allow just the 16th-most points per game to shooting guards (22.4) and the 14th-most to small forwards.
With Marcus Smart now active, Bane has been playing a bit more small forward and a bit less shooting guard. Over a four-game sample alongside both Smart and Morant, Bane is averaging 21.3 points per game, crossing the 23.5 threshold just once — his first game with both of them back. He has scored 23, 18 and 17 since that game.
The splits seal the deal for me on this Desmond Bane under. Bane is averaging 24.6 points per game this year, but that’s with home-away splits of 22.4-26.5. He reached 28 points in exactly half his home starts but failed to eclipse 18 in the other half, including his lone home appearance alongside both Smart and Morant. Bane’s median at home is just 22.5. I’m surprised we’re getting the under 23.5 at +100 via DraftKings, so lock this one in for a unit.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Desmond Bane Under 23.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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