Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Tuesday, January 23

C.J. McCollum Player Prop

The New Orleans Pelicans don’t have a ton of viable perimeter shooters, which is what makes C.J. McCollum so important to their offense. The veteran point guard has been lethal from beyond the arc this year, converting 43.4% of his looks for 3.4 3-pointers per game, which have helped him average a steady 19.4 points despite playing alongside Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.

McCollum now takes on the Utah Jazz, who, over the last 15 games, have allowed the seventh-most above-the-break 3-pointers per game (10.2) while playing at the NBA’s second-fastest pace (102). Over the last seven games, the Jazz have allowed the fourth-most points (31.5) and the seventh-most 3-pointers (3.9) to point guards while playing at the fourth-fastest pace (101.8).

We’ve seen McCollum line up against the Jazz five times since his arrival in New Orleans. He is averaging 23.2 points per game with a median showing of 24. This December, he scored 22 versus Utah alongside Ingram (26) and Williamson (21), largely because of his 4-for-10 performance from beyond the arc. McCollum is now averaging 19.4 points per game on the year with a median showing of 19 — yet his points prop is trading at 17.5.

Thomas’ scoring output depends on perimeter shooting — 31.8% of his field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc. Thomas has not cleared the 19-point threshold this season without a triple. He needed four just to score 20 versus New York before the OG Anunoby trade.

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Cam Thomas under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 18.5 is priced at only -120 (54.6%) at FanDuel — which is worse than the true odds of -128 (56.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 17.5 for -121 (54.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Lauri Markkanen Player Prop

I already talked a bunch about the Utah Jazz, so let’s talk about their opponents, the New Orleans Pelicans. While it’s a pace-up spot for New Orleans, it’s a pace-down spot for Utah. The Pelicans rank 15th in pace on the year (99.4) but are 27th over the last 10 games (96.5). That should help them keep Lauri Markkanen under his lofty points prop of 24.5.

The last time the Jazz faced the Pelicans, Markkanen scored exactly 24 points. It was a relatively slow game, with both sides getting only 95 possessions. Markkanen shot an inefficient 37/25/100, taking a whopping 12 3-pointers but converting only three of them. While he could benefit from positive shooting regression in this spot, his underperformance on the road is another key source of value.

The Jazz are a great home team but aren’t so great outside of Salt Lake City, and Markkanen is no exception. The Jazz are just 7-16 when playing away from home while Markkanen is averaging 0.6 fewer points per game. Markkanen’s average road performance (23.6) and median road performance (24) both point to value here. He has stayed under the 24.5 in four of his last five road games as well.