We got this week started with a very solid 2-1 showing. In conjunction with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards moved to 265-246-15 (+34.4u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jalen Brunson, Gary Trent Jr. and Collin Sexton. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Brunson & More
Gary Trent Jr. Player Prop
What’s a fair projection for Gary Trent Jr. with Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett likely out? That’s a tricky question to answer. We have to assume Trent will start at the two with Dennis Schröder at the one and Bruce Brown at the three. Stokastic’s initial projections run has Trent pegged for 30.2 minutes, which, at his scoring pace of 0.49 points per minute as a starter, would yield approximately 14.8 points — not quite enough for him to clear the 15.5.
While Trent should benefit from an increase in shot volume, the Chicago Bulls are a slow-paced team that doesn’t surrender many points to guards. The Bulls rank 30th in pace on the year (96.9) and 23rd over the last 15 games (97.4). They also rank ninth in points allowed per game to shooting guards this year (21.7) and fourth over the last 15 games (20.2). They lead the NBA over the last seven (17.5).
Trent has gone over the 15.5 in just 12 of 41 games this year. While most of that sample came alongside higher-usage teammates like Barrett, Quickley or Pascal Siakam, Trent just isn’t a high-volume scorer, and forcing him to play in a higher-usage role will have consequences for his efficiency, especially against a Chicago defense that stymies opposing guards.
I don’t expect Gary Trent Jr. to clear the 15.5-point mark tonight. I posted this one to the OddsShopper Premium Discord when Trent was still trading at odds of -125 on ESPNBet. It’s now down to -135. Lock this one in before even more value gets bid off the board.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Gary Trent Jr. Under 15.5 Points -135 at ESPNBet
Collin Sexton Player Prop
Has the Collin Sexton resurgence finally come to an end? The journeyman guard averaged a monstrous 24.6 points per game over a nine-game sample dating from January 6 to January 23. Since then, he has averaged 13.7 points per game over a three-contest sample. He now draws the slow-paced and defensively efficient New York Knicks, making this a prime spot to sell on Sexton — OddsShopper Premium recommends buying the under, and I do, too.
Sexton is averaging 17.3 points per game this year but 21.6 as a starter. However, he recorded most of those numbers while shooting at an absurd clip — from January 6 to 23, Sexton shot 57/51/87 — far higher than his season (48/38/88) and career (47/38/84) rates.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Collin Sexton under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 19.5 is priced at only -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -123 (55.2%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 19.5 for -140 (58.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Collin Sexton Under 19.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
It feels strange to start a writeup about Jalen Brunson by talking about Ben Simmons, but that’s exactly what we’re going to do. The Brooklyn Nets played the Utah Jazz last night, and despite seeing the floor for only 18 minutes, Simmons dished out 11 assists. Starting point guard Spencer Dinwiddie contributed eight of his own as the Nets compiled a whopping 41 assists.
If Simmons can do it, why can’t Brunson? The Jazz rank eighth in pace on the year (100.9) but are first over the last 15 games (102.8) and fourth over the last seven (102.6). They have allowed the second-most assists per game on the year (29.2) to go with the most through the last 15 (31.1) and seven (34.3). Point guards are averaging a league-high 10.3 assists per game versus Utah this year. That number sits at 10.5 over the last seven.
There are some concerns with backing Brunson on the assist market tonight. For one, he is averaging only 6.5 assists per game this year, and for another, he has tallied eight-plus assists in just 16 games. However, the departures of RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley — and now the injury to Julius Randle — make the over a sharp play.
Brunson had to play without Randle, Quickley and Barrett last night. He tallied a dizzying 14 potential assists in 34.2 minutes. While only seven of those turned into actual assists, he got somewhat unlucky. His usual potential assist conversion rate is 56% on the year. Further, 91.7% of Simmons’ potential assists turned into actual assists last night, while 72.7% of Dinwiddie’s did. If Brunson dishes 14 potential assists again and converts, say, 70% of them, we’d be on our way to a 10-assist night.
I posted the over 7.5 at -125 on ESPNBet in the OddsShopper Premium Discord and on our expert picks page this morning, but before this article could go live, their price had already ticked down to -150. The best price you’ll find now is the -139 at Caesars. Pair a wager on that line with one on Brunson to go over the 9.5 for +220 at ESPNBet.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 7.5 Assists -139 at Caesars
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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