Last week’s cold spell continued into Monday, but I have faith that we’re bouncing back. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Tyrese Haliburton, Domantas Sabonis and Fred VanVleet. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +18u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Fred VanVleet & More
Tyrese Haliburton Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in one of tonight’s few games without an injury report that’s about a mile long. There are still a few notable names on there — Bennedict Mathurin is out for the season, for instance — but relative to the rest of today’s slate, these injury reports are squeaky clean.
I recommend fading Tyrese Haliburton in the assist column today. Since Pascal Siakam arrived in Indiana, Haliburton is averaging only 9.3 assists per game — and, while he was on a minutes restriction alongside him earlier, his assists per minute rate dips to 0.31 with Siakam from 0.37 without him. That means he must play an average of 33 to clear the 10.5-assist threshold we’re backing him to stay under.
The matchup against the Thunder is a tricky one, too. They rank fourth in defensive rating this year (111.3) and ninth in assists allowed per game to point guards (8.4). They sit at 11th in defensive rating over the last 15 games (112.1) but are an even more impressive sixth in assists allowed per game to point guards (7.3).
The Pacers are also on the front end of a back-to-back, so if they let this game get away from them early, they may choose not to make an issue of it late. The Pacers will host the Chicago Bulls tomorrow in a key part of the Eastern Conference play-in race. I bought Haliburton to stay under both the 10.5 and the 8.5 (+175 at ESPNBet).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 10.5 Assists -140 at ESPNBet
Domantas Sabonis Player Prop
When you see a player’s rebounding prop listed at 14.5, chances are the under will be a good deal. Sure, Domantas Sabonis is averaging 15.3 rebounds per game since the All-Star Break — he also averaged only 13.2 per game beforehand! He takes on a Milwaukee Bucks squad that has allowed a league-average share of boards to opposing centers over the last 15 games (15.2), so I’m buying the under.
OddsShopper Premium also loves this under for Sabonis today, and, from the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Domantas Sabonis under today due to an obvious market inefficiency. The under 14.5 rebounds will cost you -105 (51.2%) at BetMGM, which is a better number than the true odds of -113 (53%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 14.5 for -122 (55%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 Rebonds -105 at BetMGM
Fred VanVleet Player Prop
It’s time to play an over. Fred VanVleet will captain a Houston Rockets offense that just lost Alperen Sengün for the foreseeable future, which will likely thrust VanVleet into an even bigger facilitation role.
VanVleet was already averaging eight assists per game this season, so we’re lucky that the books opened the bidding on this prop at 7.5 due to his shaky showings in the assist column since the All-Star Break.
VanVleet draws a matchup with the fast-paced San Antonio Spurs, and this spot usually bodes great for point guards. They have coughed up the sixth-most assists per game to the position on the year (9.2).
VanVleet himself is averaging nine assists per game against them this season, clearing the 7.5 twice and the 9.5 once. VanVleet played each of those games alongside Sengün (he hasn’t played a game without the budding star this year), too.
I bought VanVleet to clear the 7.5 at -145 on Hard Rock (it’s at -150 at DraftKings and most other spots). I also bought him to clear the 9.5 at FanDuel for +180. The Spurs have gotten better at limiting assists lately, but their breakneck pace and VanVleet’s likely increase in volume make the over a great deal at this price point.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 7.5 Assists -145 at Hard Rock
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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