Yesterday’s article got stomped — but we were so close to a good showing! Josh Hart would’ve stayed under if Tom Thibodeau weren’t a goblin. Darius Garland would’ve gone over with a single additional point, rebound or assist. We were close, so let’s bounce back — today, I have NBA player prop picks for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jalen Williams.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Draymond Green Player Prop
Every morning, I sit down at my computer, look at the NBA schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium — in that order– before beginning my research into the day’s odds board. A handful of options stood out at the top of the board even before I began doing my own digging, especially this Draymond Green bet. We can buy him to stay under 8.5 rebounds for odds of only -121 at Caesars.
I like this Green under today because he draws a tough matchup under the rim with Bam Adebayo. Green is averaging 8.7 rebounds on 12.4 rebound chances per game since the All-Star Break, which is enough volume for the over, but Adebayo is an effective rebounder who has limited Green in the past. Across nine matchups, Green is averaging only 6.7 boards per game, going over the 8.5 just three times — and not since the 2020-21 campaign.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. By taking in the odds from across the market; adjusting for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to produce the breakeven odds for each bet, the model gives us a good idea of where and how we can beat the market. When we find a bet trading for longer odds than the breakeven price, we attack. That’s what we see with this Green bet:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Draymond Green Under 8.5 Rebounds -121 at Caesars
Jalen Williams Player Prop
Two Jalen Williams player props were popping with some marginal positive expected value (+EV) in the model this morning: his points (17.5) and his assists (3.5). But when we combine the two for his points and assists prop (21.5), we’re moving the hook around for a bit of breathing room without sacrificing a ton of juice. Pinnacle lists Williams at odds of -122 to stay under 17.5 points and +108 to stay under 3.5 assists; we’re buying this bet for odds of -110 at DraftKings.
We’re fading Williams versus an increasingly stingy New Orleans Pelicans interior defense. Williams attempts 60% of his field goals in the paint, which could lead to problems for him in the scoring department — New Orleans ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game since the All-Star Break (43.3). The Pelicans held him to only 15 points in January on shooting splits of 50/25 (he didn’t make it to the charity stripe).
As far as assists go, Williams averages 4.5 per game, but that number has ticked down to 4.1 since the All-Star Break. The Pelicans have also allowed the ninth-fewest assists per game since the All-Star Break (25.3). Over the last 15 games, they rank 11th-best in assists allowed per game to power forwards, too (4.1). Let’s play him to stay under 21.5 for the friendly price of -110.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Williams Under 21.5 Points & Assists -110 at DraftKings
Stephen Curry Player Prop
We’re returning to the well with this NBA player prop pick today: we’re fading a high-powered offensive weapon versus the Miami Heat. Stephen Curry averages 26.8 points per game this year, which is moderately more than where his points prop is trading (26.5), but this matchup with Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and the rest of the Miami defense could prove too much for him to overcome.
The Heat have historically kept Curry’s scoring to a minimum. Since the 2020-21 campaign, Curry has faced the Heat six times, scoring more than 27 points only twice. He averaged 23.2 points per game through that sample with shooting splits of 38/33/97. Those are solid numbers, but they aren’t elite, Future Hall of Famer Stephen Curry numbers. I expect a similarly sluggish showing from him today.
Curry’s splits also point to value here. It’s a road game, and his points average dips to 26.1 outside San Francisco. He’s also playing this game after one night off, and his points average dips to 25.4 in this specific rest scenario, largely due to a dip in his usage rate from 31.7% on the year to just 31.1% in this situation. We’re also getting a point of edge relative to Pinnacle by playing him to stay under 26.5.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Under 26.5 Points -130 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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