After a 9-3 performance last week, we kicked off this week with a 1-1 split. If Al Horford had made any of his four 3-pointers (all of which were painfully open), we’d be 2-0. Let’s bounce back tonight — I’ve dug up a pair of NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools for tonight’s slate. Let’s get straight into my NBA player prop picks for Michael Porter Jr. and Tyrese Haliburton. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Haliburton & More
Michael Porter Jr. Player Prop
After starting in an 0-2 hole, the Denver Nuggets swept the Minnesota Timberwolves on the road to even the series. It’s been a weird series, especially for Michael Porter Jr. — he scored 20 and 21 in Games 1 and 3 but nine and four in Games 2 and 4. The books have set his points prop to 15.5. The over clocks in at +100 on BetMGM, and that’s going on today’s NBA player prop betting card.
Porter is averaging 18.7 points per game in the postseason, going over the 15.5 in seven of nine games. He averaged 15.8 per game against the Timberwolves in the regular season, going over just twice. Importantly, his postseason average improves to 19.2 at home, and his regular-season average improved to 17.9 in Denver as well. This is too good of a buy-low spot to pass up for me.
I expect the Timberwolves to make some major defensive adjustments after allowing Aaron Gordon to cook them for 27 points on splits of 92/100/100. Rudy Gobert was his primary defender, logging 6:52 of coverage and allowing him to shoot 100% from the floor. Those adjustments will hopefully free up some open looks for MPJ, making a bounce-back showing from the forward a bit easier.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points +100 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Michael Porter Jr. points live odds page!
Tyrese Haliburton Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers head back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 with the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are in increasingly dire straits with OG Anunoby now joining Mitchell Robinson, Bojan Bogdanovic and Julius Randle on the injury report, but it’s also a home game for New York, and they’re favored. I expect the Knicks to step up and stymie Tyrese Haliburton tonight.
Haliburton is averaging 3.5 3-pointers per game in the postseason. That rate improves to 4.8 this series. However, Haliburton’s increased production stems from hyper-efficient shooting: he has converted 45% of his long-range looks, well above the 29.6% he averaged against the Bucks and the 36.4% in the regular season. Our NBA +EV betting tools reveal this Tyrese Haliburton prop is trading with loads of positive expected value (+EV):
We can buy Haliburton to stay under 3.5 3-pointers for +130 at bet365 and DraftKings. All other public books have this one trading between +125 and +102. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one at +105.
Our NBA +EV betting tools operate by calculating the true odds (a breakeven price) of a wager, which, with this Haliburton bet, clock in at +116. It reaches that number by indexing the odds across the sports betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; then generating the true odds with that data.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 3.5 3-Pointers +130 at bet365
For the best price currently available, see our Tyrese Haliburton 3-pointers live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
