We are sitting at 16-8 on NBA player props over the last two weeks, which, while good, could be better, and I’m optimistic about our odds of going 2-0 tonight. I’ve dug up two NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools that stand out for this evening’s Eastern Conference Finals, so let’s get straight into my NBA player prop picks for Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Tyrese Haliburton & More
Jayson Tatum Player Prop
Is this the night that Jayson Tatum finally has a big playoff game? The star forward is averaging a dismal 24.3 points per game in the postseason after averaging 26.9 in the regular season. However, his first and second-round matchups may explain the downtick in his performance.
Tatum has played the Heat and Cavs so far. Miami ended the regular season ranked 29th in pace and fifth in defensive rating. Cleveland ranked 24th and seventh. In the regular season, Tatum averaged 24.7 versus Miami and 26 versus Cleveland. Poor scoring performances should’ve been the expectation.
However, the Indiana Pacers are not at all like the Heat and Cavs. Indiana ranked second in pace and 24th in defensive rating this year. Tatum averaged 32.5 points per game against them, clearing the 29.5 in all four contests. While it’s fair to point out that he only has two playoff games with over 30 points, the Eastern Conference Finals are a great get-right spot for the young star.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, check out our Jayson Tatum points live odds page!
Tyrese Haliburton Player Prop
While the Pacers played underwhelming defense in the regular season, the Boston Celtics did not. Boston ranked second in the metric this season (110.6). The team currently leads remaining playoff teams (106.1) as well. Boston also leads the remaining playoff teams in 3-point percentage allowed (33.8%). As a result, it looks like a good spot to fade Tyrese Haliburton.
Our NBA player prop betting model recommends buying Haliburton to stay under 3.5 3-pointers. That bet will cost you only -115 at DraftKings and Hard Rock but between -117 and -130 at pretty much every other public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one at -140, giving us plenty of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools calculate that the true odds (a breakeven price for this bet) are -126. The tools arrive at that number after indexing the odds across the market; factoring in book sharpness, hold and more; then using that data to generate the true odds.
When you can buy a bet for odds longer than that fair market price, it +EV, which is exactly what we’re seeing with this Haliburton under. Don’t just play this at any book, though — you’re missing out on potential returns by not buying the -115 at DraftKings or Hard Rock.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Under 3.5 3-Pointers -115 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, see our Tyrese Haliburton 3-pointers live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
