Bang! I took a long weekend, but the last time I wrote this story, we cashed a Jayson Tatum over and a Jaylen Brown under for Game 3, bringing us to 8-2 on the conference finals (9-2 if you count my series player prop) and 27-10 over the last four weeks. A 73% win rate isn’t sustainable — or is it? Let’s see if I can stay hot with these two NBA player props I’ve dug up with the help of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Rudy Gobert and Derrick Jones Jr. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Rudy Gobert & More
Rudy Gobert Player Prop
This is it. The Minnesota Timberwolves are down to their final game against the Dallas Mavericks, and to make it to the NBA Finals, they’ll have to something that’s never been done before: Dig out of a three-game hole. While it usually would be a good idea to fade their players who haven’t been in this situation before, I’m fading someone who has been: center Rudy Gobert.
We all saw Gobert give up the game-winning shot to Luka Doncic in Game 2. In Game 3, Gobert got into early foul trouble and played 28 minutes. He is now averaging just 12.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this series (20 total) and 0.57 points and rebounds per minute. Even over a normal playoff workload for Gobert, which is about 36 minutes, that would yield just 20.5 points and rebounds.
We’re fading Gobert because his presence doesn’t really help the Timberwolves at this point. He didn’t offer much against Doncic and the 2022 Mavericks, averaging 12 points and 9.7 rebounds per game; and he doesn’t offer much now. He can’t defend the perimeter. He can only score layups in dunks. In a must-win situation, look for Minnesota to feature Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid.
We’re also getting a heck of a deal at FanDuel right now. Most sportsbooks list Gobert’s points and rebounds prop at 21.5 with the under priced in the -105 range, but we can get an extra point and board for odds of -111 at FanDuel. Let’s lock this one in for a unit before that number comes off the board.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 22.5 Points & Rebounds -111 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Rudy Gobert points and rebounds live odds page!
Derrick Jones Jr. Player Prop
Betting on one of Dallas’ role players may not seem that exciting, but our NBA player prop betting model believes it to be profitable in this spot. Derrick Jones Jr. Jones has had to step up following the injury to Maxi Kleber and is averaging 10.2 points per game in the postseason but only 7.7 per game this series.
Our NBA betting tools advise fading Jones today. He’ll cost you just at -102 at FanDuel to stay under 9.5 points, a mark he has cleared just once this series (he scored 11 on splits of 75/100/100 in Game 3). That price is substantially off-market, and our tools reveal that it’s trading with oodles of positive expected value (+EV):
Although this bet is -102 at FanDuel, most public books have it priced between -105 and -118, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, taking action at -130. We’re beating the market and Jones’ series average with this bet as the books expect an above-average showing from Jones tonight.
The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Derrick Jones Jr. Under 9.5 Points -102 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, see our Derrick Jones Jr. points live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
