After a forgettable 0-2 showing last night, I’m eager for a chance to bounce back on tonight’s slate, which is dominated by teams on the wrong end of a back-to-back. I’ve dug up two high-value spots to attack with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium, and in Wednesday’s article, I’ll lay out my NBA player prop picks for Nikola Jokic and Devin Booker.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Jokic & More
Nikola Jokic Player Prop
I started scrolling through OddsShopper Premium this morning hoping to find a Nikola Jokic under trading with some positive expected value (+EV). Unfortunately, both his points prop (28.5) and rebounds prop (12.5) are just under the cutoff. Fortunately, Jokic’s points and rebound prop (40.5) is set to an off-market 41.5 at Fanatics, and we can get the under for -120. The under 40.5 is trading for odds between -115 and -120 across the market.
We’re fading Jokic on the wrong end of a back-to-back against the stingy Minnesota Timberwolves. While the injury reports could mess with us, Jokic averages only 25.3 points and 9.8 rebounds (35.1 total) per game versus the Rudy Gobert-led Wolves over a four-game regular season sample. He averaged 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds (38.6) against them in the postseason last year, too, which also clocks well under this number.
The Timberwolves’ defense has been legit since the All-Star Break. They rank ninth in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9) and first in defensive rating (107.2). That corresponds to the 13th-fewest points allowed to centers over the last 15 games (22.8). Rebounds have become a bit of an issue, as their team rebound rate sits at only 49.5% since the break, but Jokic’s total of 12.5 is quite optimistic compared to his recent production against Gobert.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 41.5 Points & Rebounds -120 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Nikola Jokic points and rebounds live odds page!
Devin Booker Player Prop
Now that you’ve read about my top NBA player prop today, let’s dive into the best bet I saw on OddsShopper Premium this morning. When betting on NBA player props, I have a simple process: I look at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all before beginning my research. This Devin Booker player prop was at the top of the board when I opened the model, so I immediately added it to my betting card. Click here to find out how you can access the same tools I use for just $1!
Devin Booker is averaging exactly seven assists per game this year, but that dips to 6.6 on the road and 6.1 when he plays without rest. Bookerjust dished out only five assists against the same Los Angeles Clippers last night, too, so I’m not sure from where the optimism about his performance tonight stems.
Our tools’ process is far less subjective than my analysis. It indexes the lines from across the market; adjusts for factors like hold, book sharpness and more; and uses those odds to generate a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each wager. When a bet is available for longer odds than the true odds, it’s time for us to bet, as is the case with this Booker wager today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Devin Booker Under 7.5 Assists -115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, see our Devin Booker assists live odds page.
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