Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Wednesday, April 24

Myself and members of the OddsShopper Discord cashed an easy over for Sam Hauser in Game 1. The books have adjusted the juice on his total (5.5) but not the total itself, so we’re going right back to the well for this NBA player prop pick. While my mantra in the NBA playoffs is to buy low and sell high, we’re still able to buy low on Hauser for this contest.

In Game 1 of this series, Hauser shot 4-for-6 from the field, and all six field-goal attempts came from beyond the arc. He scored 12 points in the win. All six of his shots went uncontested. Even though he played just 14 minutes, Hauser was able to easily clear the over on his total because the Heat didn’t respect his game enough to defend him. That gameplan probably won’t change much for Game 2.

When Hauser is on the floor, the Heat still have plenty of threats to defend. Boston’s eight-man playoff rotation means Hauser sees action alongside at least two of Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, all of whom warrant more defensive attention than Hauser.

If you fade Murphy on this market, you’re able to get the under 3.5 for -112 at DraftKings, but nowhere else has this same bet priced for odds longer than -120. Both Pinnacle (-143), a sharp book, and Caesars (-129) have much stingier prices, and our model estimates the true odds of this wager to be -121.

By using OddsShopper Premium, you can easily find bets with +EV like this one every day. We can tell this is a +EV bet because of how the model works — it pulls in the odds from across the market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and more; and generates the aforementioned true odds, which the -112 at DraftKings clears.

When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, it’s a +EV bet! Wagers like this one, when placed over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine. While you won’t win every bet, and your bankroll won’t transform overnight, we have the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.

For more picks, sign up for OddsShopper Premium. You can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week (or month) for 50% off (regular price of $14.95 weekly, $49.95 monthly)! Got more questions? Read our guide to using +EV tools!

We can’t just bet on Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy III today. Sure, they’re fun players, but they’re not the superstars, and it would feel a bit weird to leave a star off the card. Instead, let’s fade Jayson Tatum today.

It’s no disrespect — the superstar put together an incredible regular-season performance — but the Miami Heat are just too good defensively for him to deserve a points and assists total of 31.5 tonight.

The under for Tatum’s assist total (5.5) is trading with +EV today, but we’re combining it with his total points (25.5) as we’re looking for a complete blowout by Boston or a much better defensive showing from the Heat. Miami coughed up 23 points and 10 assists (33) to Tatum in Game 1.

Tatum tallied an impressive 16 potential assists in Game 1 while shooting 39/13/100. He attempted 18 field goals and eight free throws. The volume certainly was there, but he also played 41 minutes, by far the most of Boston’s starters. Everyone else, including Jaylen Brown, played 34 minutes or less.