Our 6-0 streak came to a brutal conclusion on Tuesday, as we lost both our Jalen Green and Khris Middleton unders. Oh well, it happens — let’s get our momentum back today. We’ve got a pretty solid NBA slate to work with, including two televised games on ESPN, so I’ve found a few high-value spots with the help of OddsShopper Premium. In today’s article, I have NBA player prop picks for Zion Williamson and Jrue Holiday.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Zion Williamson & More
Zion Williamson Player Prop
I saw one pick for Zion Williamson trading with positive expected value (+EV) in our betting model today: his points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop. The under 38.5 will cost you only -115 at Hard Rock but is -137 at Pinnacle. Instead of playing that line, I recommend playing him to stay under 32.5 points and assists (a market that Pinnacle doesn’t offer) for -120 at Fanatics.
We’re getting enough value despite (perhaps because of) shaving off the rebounds. The last time Zion Williamson played these Orlando Magic, he tallied 20 points, two assists and seven boards, good for 22 P&A and 29 PRA, both of which clock in well under the total. However, with his rebound prop trading between 5.5 and 6.5, I think we’re getting the better deal while minimizing risk with this pick.
It’s sharp to fade Williamson as a scorer today due to his reliance on interior scoring. Williamson ranks second in the NBA in points in the paint scored per game (17.6) and ranks third since the All-Star Break (18.1). That production accounts for 76.8% and 75.4% of his points scored in those samples, respectively. Meanwhile, Orlando’s defense ranks eighth in points allowed in the paint per game this year (47.7) and fourth since the All-Star Break (44.9).
We’re fading Williamson as a passer because Orlando has been quite stingy when it comes to allowing assists. The Magic have allowed the fewest assists per game this year (23.9) and since the All-Star Break (24). The Magic have allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game to power forwards this year (3.8) to go with the second-fewest points (20.7).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Zion Williamson Under 32.5 Points & Assists -120 at Fanatics
Jrue Holiday Player Prop
With my top pick out of the way, let’s see what my favorite bet from OddsShopper Premium was this morning. My NBA player prop betting process is quite simple: I glance at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all kicking off my research. This prop jumped off the page at me before I dove very deep into matchup-specific data. We’re fading Jrue Holiday against the Oklahoma City Thunder and their fifth-ranked defense against point guards (23 points per game allowed) today.
The Boston Celtics have nothing left to play for in the regular season. They have already locked up the top seed in the Eastern Conference, allowing them to limit their players as needed. Today, the Celtics only have two players with questionable designations: Jaylen Brown and Jaden Springer. Brown missed the last game but could easily return for this one, and I’m skeptical of how much work the Celtics will expect Holiday to do. The veteran point guard is averaging only 32.5 minutes and 10.8 points per game since the All-Star Break.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It logs the odds from across the market; adjusts them for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and uses those numbers to produce a breakeven price (or “true odds“) for each wager. When a line is available for longer odds than the true odds, the model recommends that we bet on it. That’s what we see with this Holiday bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can do so for 20% off your first month ($39.96) or week ($11.96) with promo code “ISIROIS”. That’s far less expensive than the +EV tools that our competitors are offering, even after the discount ends!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 11.5 Points +100 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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