Let’s eat! Yesterday’s article went 2-1 again. We hit our Kevin Durant and Derrick White unders but lost our bet on Klay Thompson. However, my full NBA card had a monster night, netting us 5.5 units to bring us to 147-114-3 (+39.8u, 20% ROI) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Donovan Mitchell, Paolo Banchero and Jalen Brunson. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Donovan Mitchell & More
Donovan Mitchell Player Prop
We locked in a ladder bet for Donovan Mitchell in the assist column on Saturday, and he delivered with a career-best 13 assists. He has a shot to meet or exceed that number tonight. Over his last two games, both of which Darius Garland has missed, Mitchell is averaging an absurd 9.5 assists, 17 potential assists and 69 passes made per game. The books just haven’t adjusted their lines enough to account for his role at the heart of Cleveland’s offense without Garland.
Mitchell, the de-facto point guard in Cleveland with Garland out, takes on a bad Utah Jazz defense tonight. The Jazz have coughed up the most assists per game to point guards this year (10.5). They allow the fourth-most assists per game overall (28.1) and rank 24th in defensive rating. The Jazz allowed Spencer Dinwiddie to dish 11 assists on Monday and Scoot Henderson to dish a career-high 10 last Thursday.
Tonight’s matchup with the Jazz could go much like Saturday’s matchup with the Hawks because of both teams’ inability to stop opposing point guards from dishing out assists. Skeptics may point out that Mitchell is averaging only 5.5 assists per game this year — and only 5.8 without Garland — but a few tough early matchups without his partner in the backcourt are skewing those numbers. Mitchell averaged 7.2 assists per game without Garland last year. I’m buying the over 6.5 at -130 for a full unit before laddering this one up to 12 (+1200 at DraftKings) through 10 (+460 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 6.5 Assists -130 at DraftKings
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
The New York Knicks will make the short trip to visit the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Neither team has played since Monday, but the Knicks won’t have to play again until Sunday, while the Nets have a back-to-back set on Friday and Saturday. Still, Brooklyn’s defense has looked steady, especially when it comes to assists allowed. The Nets rank 13th in overall assists allowed per game (25.8) and fifth against point guards (7.9). With Jalen Brunson averaging only 5.8 assists per game, I want action on the under 6.5 tonight, and OddsShopper Premium does, too.
Statistics aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jalen Brunson under today because of the pricing disparity. The -125 (55.6%) at DraftKings for the under 6.5 is worse than the true odds for this wager of -134 (57.3%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced down at -153 (60.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 Assists -130 at DraftKings
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
Let’s wrap today’s column up by fading one member of the Orlando Magic. The Magic will kick off a back-to-back set with a home game against the Miami Heat tonight. They’ll have to play the Milwaukee Bucks on the road tomorrow. In contrast, the Heat won’t play again until a home stand versus the Atlanta Hawks on Friday.
The Magic will get center Wendell Carter Jr. back tonight, which should limit the production of power forward Paolo Banchero to an extent. Banchero is averaging 32.2 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) per game this year, but in his five games with WCJ, he averaged just 26.6 PRA.
The Heat have effectively limited Banchero before. Last year, he averaged only 30.3 PRA against them, only once beating his posted PRA prop of 33.5. He needed to record what was then a career-high nine assists to do so, as the Heat held him to only 17 points and 10 rebounds. With Miami ranked 25th in pace, Banchero won’t get many extra possessions to hit the over.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 33.5 PRA -104 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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