Another day, another profit. Yesterday’s article went 2-1, with us cashing a Zion Williamson under and a Chet Holmgren over, losing only a Nicolas Claxton under. That performance brought my NBA cards up to 167-127-6 (+45.5u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Pascal Siakam, RJ Barrett and Cam Thomas. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Pascal Siakam & More
Pascal Siakam Player Prop
The Washington Wizards, fresh off a loss to a loss to the Orlando Magic, must get ready to play the Toronto Raptors tonight. The matchup is great news for Toronto’s interior scorers — on a per-game basis, the Wizards have surrendered the second-most points in the paint this year (59.2) on the most field goals allowed in the restricted area (21.5). They have also coughed up the ninth-most field goals allowed in the non-restricted paint (8.1).
Washington’s struggles near the rim correspond to the most points per game allowed to centers (28.8) and the sixth-most to power forwards (26.2). When these teams met earlier in the year, Pascal Siakam erupted for 39 points. Jakob Poeltl tallied a still-solid 15, but Siakam led the team in field goal attempts by six and tallied 56% of the team’s free-throw attempts.
Siakam’s strong production against the Wizards earlier this year makes sense given his shot profile: he leads the Raptors in attempts in the restricted area (5.6) and the non-restricted paint (4.8). Shot attempts in those zones constitute 65% of his total shot attempts. He also leads the Raptors in free-throw attempts per game (5.7) and usage rate (25%). He may not get to 39 points again tonight, but we don’t need him to do that to cash this over.
Siakam is trading at odds of -120 to go over the 24.5 at FanDuel. You’ll find him priced at -152 on Pinnacle, a sharp book, to do the same thing. I’m laddering this one to 35 (+600 at FanDuel) through 30 (+210 at FanDuel). Siakam’s odds of going off against the Wizards on the road — where his usage rate is 0.2% higher than at home — are higher than what the books would have you believe.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 24.5 Points -120 at FanDuel
Cam Thomas Player Prop
This Brooklyn Nets player prop is one of the least efficient markets I have seen this year. The odds for Cam Thomas on the points market vary wildly depending on the book you’re using. While the streaky guard is averaging 23.5 points per game, much of that is due to a few outlier showings earlier in the year. He is averaging only 21.1 points per game in December with a median performance of 20. At the current prices, I can’t stay away from this under — and OddsShopper Premium can’t stay away, either.
EDITOR’S NOTE (12/27/23 at 12:02 p.m. ET): The Brooklyn Nets ruled out Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson and Nicolas Claxton after publication. For the most up-to-date NBA odds and player prop picks from OddsShopper Premium, view our shop pages.
While it’s worth noting that Thomas exploded for a season-high 45 points against Milwaukee earlier in the year, the Bucks have improved considerably at defending the perimeter. They now give up the eighth-fewest 3-pointers per game (11.8).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Cam Thomas under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 23.5 is priced at only -121 (54.8%) at BetRivers, which is worse than the true odds of -146 (59.4%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 21.5 priced down at -127 (56%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Cam Thomas Under 23.5 Points -121 at BetRivers
RJ Barrett Player Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. They’ll now host the New York Knicks without a night off. Still, one member of the Knicks stands out as a sharp player to fade: small forward RJ Barrett.
Barrett exploded on Christmas for 21 points, the bulk of which he scored in the first quarter. He still played only 28 minutes as head coach Tom Thibodeau continues to move away from him — Barrett is averaging 28.8 minutes per game in December, down from 29.5 in October and November.
The Thunder have defended small forwards quite well this year. They have coughed up the fifth-fewest points per game to the position (19.4) on the year. They held Jaden McDaniels to eight points last night, down from his season average (10.8)
One final reason to fade Barrett in this spot: home-away splits. Barrett averages 17.2 points per game on the road, 2.5 points fewer than what he averages at home. That’s consistent with what we saw from him last year — he averaged 19.1 points per game on the road versus 20.1 points per game at home. Barrett’s inefficient shooting and inability to stay on the floor have killed him in road games. His shooting splits sit at a brutal 41/31/87 in away games, and his minutes sit at just 28 versus 30.5 at home.
NBA Player Prop Pick: RJ Barrett Under 17.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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