Yesterday’s article went 2-1, cashing tickets on Wendell Carter Jr. and Alperen Sengün but failing to do so on Coby White. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Miles Bridges, Harrison Barnes and Jarrett Allen. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
Along with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards dipped to 279-276-16 (+24.6u) on the season last night, largely because of Minnesota’s second-half collapse. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Miles Bridges & More
Miles Bridges Player Prop
The Charlotte Hornets will take on the Toronto Raptors tonight, and with the trade deadline just days away, this could be the appearance for some players on both sides. Miles Bridges could get moved, but until he does, I expect him to keep hooping. He just dropped 41 points on the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday on shooting splits of 62/50/100 with a season-high 26 field goal attempts.
With LaMelo Ball sidelined and Terry Rozier on the Miami Heat, Bridges is averaging 23.5 points per game while playing 38.4 minutes. His shooting splits (45/38/86) are on par with his season rates (46/36/87) but his field goal attempts have skyrocketed to 20.2 from 17.7 on the year. When excluding his lone road start through that sample, his points per game average jumps to 26.4. He now draws a vulnerable Toronto team that ranks 29th in net rating (-13.8), above only Charlotte (-16.7).
The Hornets are seven-point home dogs to the Raptors tonight. That’s despite Toronto ranking a dreadful 27th in defensive rating over the last seven (124.1) as well as dead last in points allowed per game to small forwards (29.2) through that stretch. The Raptors also rank last versus the position over the last 15 (27.2) and 29th on the season (23.8). I’m laddering him through 30 (+280 at FanDuel) to 35 (+750 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Miles Bridges 25+ Points +100 at FanDuel
Harrison Barnes Player Prop
The Sacramento Kings will host the Detroit Pistons tonight. The Pistons will have to play again tomorrow, as they’ve got a road game scheduled versus the Portland Trail Blazers up next, while the Kings will get a night off before hosting the Denver Nuggets. With a blowout expected, OddsShopper Premium has identified an edge on the points, rebounds and assists (PRA) market for Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Harrison Barnes under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 20.5 is priced at only -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -116 (53.7%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 20.5 for -134 (57.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Harrison Barnes Under 20.5 PRA -110 at DraftKings
Jarrett Allen Player Prop
I’m getting a little weird with this NBA player prop pick — we’re fading Jarrett Allen on the glass against a fast-paced and poor-rebounding Washington Wizards team.
We’re doing so for two reasons, the first of which concerns Cleveland’s schedule. The Cavaliers will stay on the road with a game against the Brooklyn Nets tomorrow, so if they can blow the Wizards out as the market expects, Allen may not have to play much tonight.
Further, Allen’s rebounding production dips noticeably when Evan Mobley suits up. Allen is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game this season — 11.8 without Mobley and 9.2 with him. Sure, Mobley is still working back from an injury, but in the four games Allen and Mobley have played together since his return, Allen has put together two strong rebounding performances (16 and 17) and two poor ones (11 and 7).
His average of 12.8 through that stretch likely isn’t sustainable, and it’s allowing us to sell high.
Allen’s rebounding prop total is up to 12.5 on FanDuel, where you can buy the under for only -130. Allen has stayed under the 13-rebound mark in all but four of his 20 games alongside Mobley this season and in all but 12 of his 43 starts. Although he tallied a 19-rebound showing in a blowout over Washington without Mobley earlier in the year, he then tallied just 12 boards against them without Mobley two days later. The last time Cleveland was headed into a back-to-back set, Allen tallied only 11 rebounds in 30 minutes versus the Pistons.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jarrett Allen Under 12.5 Rebounds -130 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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