I don’t like to complain about losses, especially not after yesterday’s article went 2-1. But my God, did you see what De’Aaron Fox did last night? He finished with 26 out of 28 points after… this missed layup (or dunk? Who knows what he was cooking). My full cards are now at 200-186-10 (+24.7u) as our skid continues. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Brandon Ingram, Stephen Curry and Fred VanVleet. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Stephen Curry & More
Brandon Ingram Player Prop
The New Orleans Pelicans will play the Golden State Warriors tonight after a two-day break. They’ll play the Denver Nuggets on Friday and the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday, and star forward Zion Williamson is now questionable with a quad injury. There is a chance the Pelicans rest him at some point over the next four days because of scheduling.
I like Brandon Ingram tonight regardless of whether Williamson plays for a handful of reasons, but it’s at least worth noting that we’re getting a much better price now than we’d be getting later if Williamson gets ruled out.
Ingram’s shot profile also makes him a strong option against the Warriors — on a per-game basis, Golden State allows the most shots in the non-restricted paint (12.3) by a big margin as well as the sixth most in the mid-range (4.5).
Ingram leads the Pelicans in made shots in both of those zones. He takes 9.8 shots per game in those zones, which constitute 59.3% of his overall shots. He trails only Williamson in field goal attempts in the non-restricted paint, so if the big man sits, he’d be in a prime spot to feast tonight. I recommend buying this one early in case Williamson gets ruled out.
Ingram has also put together some big games against the Warriors of late. Since the 2021-22 season, Ingram is averaging 27 points per game versus the Warriors, going over the 22.5 where his point total is trading, in four of five games. He only played alongside Williamson twice, but those games saw him score 26 and 34 points. I’m laddering Ingram up to 30 (+360 at FanDuel) — a number he cleared twice in that five-game sample — through 25 (+135 at FanDuel).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brandon Ingram Over 22.5 Points -111 at FanDuel
Stephen Curry Player Prop
We’re going back to the Pelicans-Warriors well for this player prop pick. While none of the Pelicans’ stars are great defenders, there are a number of them both in the starting five and off the bench, including Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado. As a team, the Pelicans now rank a solid sixth in defensive rating (111.6). They even lead the NBA in the metric over the last seven games (106.9). The Pelicans rank fifth versus point guards and seventh versus shooting guards in points allowed per game over the last seven as well, so we’re fading Stephen Curry — and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing so as well.
Curry’s points prop of 28.5 is already high — he is averaging 27.1 points per game this year with a median of 27.5. His average dips to 22.4 and his median to 25 since Christmas. That makes me all the more eager to jump at the under., especially as he faces an above-average defense.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Stephen Curry under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 28.5 is priced at only +100 (50%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -113 (53.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 28.5 priced down at -133 (57.1%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Under 28.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
Fred VanVleet Player Prop
The Houston Rockets will square off against the Chicago Bulls tonight, and my biggest note for the game is the pace. The Rockets rank 25th in the pace this year but have been playing at an increasingly higher clip over the last seven, through which they rank 15th. Meanwhile, the Bulls rank 30th on the year and have been even slower over the last seven.
This spot is a good one to fade Fred VanVleet. Houston is now in a pace-down spot, which should lead to some regression in his scoring. VanVleet is scoring 17.5 points per game on the year and 18.9 through the last seven. Chicago’s slow pace and solid guard defense should limit VanVleet’s opportunities to produce.
The Bulls can shut down opposing guards. Chicago leads the NBA in points allowed per game to point guards (20.6). They slide to seventh through the last seven (23.2) but are still second over the last 15 (21.8). Getting Alex Caruso back after a brief absence should help, too — he is probable, and Chicago’s defensive efficiency improves by 5.6 with him on the floor.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Under 17.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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