Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Wednesday, January 17

Alperen Sengün Player Prop

I have often featured Alperen Sengün in this column, and we’re going right back to him tonight. Sengün and the Houston Rockets will take on the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden this evening. The Knicks have played exceptional defense since acquiring wing OG Anunoby. They rank just 11th in defensive rating on the year (113.4) but lead the NBA over the last 10 games (108.8). This corresponds with a slower pace, too.

With the Knicks playing tight defense and at a slow pace, it’s easy to understand why they have allowed the sixth-fewest points per game to centers over the last 15 (20.3) and the third-fewest over the last seven (17.1). Their only vulnerability to the position has been on the perimeter. While Sengün has been taking more looks from above the break this year, he is converting only 28.4% of the time.

Sengün’s shot profile also sets up poorly for this matchup. The young center has been exceptional from the non-restricted paint, making 2.8 shots per game on a conversion rate of 50%, but New York has allowed the third-fewest made shots from that zone per game (6.4). New York also ranks eighth-best in those aforementioned above-the-break 3-pointers.

The Cavaliers may not have Evan Mobley, but they still rank second in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games (109). They also rank third in total assists allowed per game (24.2), fifth versus power forwards (3.8) and seventh versus centers (3.8). They held Giannis to five assists in a game right after Christmas. The superstar big man is averaging only 4.7 assists versus Cleveland since the 2021-22 campaign, clearing the over 6.5 just once.

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Giannis Antetokounmpo under today because of some market inefficiency. The under 6.5 is priced at only -125 (55.6%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -138 (58%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 6.5 priced down at -161 (61.7%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Scottie Barnes Player Prop

Let’s wrap today’s card up with a bold under play: we’re fading Scottie Barnes in the first game following the Pascal Siakam trade. The Toronto Raptors offloaded Siakam to the Indiana Pacers for Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, Kira Lewis Jr. (via New Orleans) and three first-round picks. Despite Toronto’s shrunken rotation, we’re trusting Miami’s defense to lock down Barnes.

Miami’s defense may not lead the NBA, but the unit ranks ninth in defensive rating on the year (112.6) and second over the last 10 (109). With center Jakob Poeltl also out, Barnes is likely to see most of his run at the three and four, which the Heat rank ninth and third against in terms of points allowed per game over the last seven.

The now-rebuilding Raptors have a budding star in Barnes, but he’ll have to deal with the elite defensive combination of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, and those two will no longer be distracted by Siakam. Barnes played one game this year without Siakam and scored just 12 points on 10 field goal attempts. He has played in 21 total games without Siakam and cleared the 21-point threshold just five times.