Let’s go — yesterday’s NBA props column went 3-0, and we even climbed our C.J. McCollum ladder from 17.5 to 25 (I guess we could’ve gone to 30, too, but who saw that coming?) Because of some non-article picks you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards ticked up to 244-227-12 (+30.8u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for LaMelo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Jaren Jackson Jr. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for LaMelo Ball & More
LaMelo Ball Player Prop
Usually, I like to fade players on teams that just traded away their high-usage teammates because of market overcorrections, but I don’t think the LaMelo Ball points prop market corrected enough for the Terry Rozier deal. Ball is averaging 24.7 points per game this year, but that number jumps to 32.2 when just looking at games without Rozier.
Sure, Ball is still working his way back from an injury, but we finally saw him eclipse the 35-minute mark on Monday, and it’s not like the minutes restriction was keeping him from scoring — Ball went for 28-plus points in three of his first four games back despite averaging a flat 30 minutes. Ball also went for at least 28 points in eight of his nine games without Rozier this season.
The Detroit Pistons are a fantastic defense to target with Ball today. They have allowed the second-most points per game to point guards on the year (27.5) and the seventh-most through the last seven games (27.7). Much of that has to do with poor perimeter defense, which Ball is well-positioned to exploit, but the interior should be open as well. The Pistons have coughed up the fifth-most points in the paint this year (55.3) and the most over the last seven (61.7)
You’ll find Ball’s points prop trading at 27.5 or 28.5 depending on where you look. Personally, given everything we’ve seen from him without Rozier, I’d have this at 29.5. I bought the over 27.5 for -120 at BetMGM, and I added the over 29.5 for +120 at ESPNBet. If you’re a new customer at BetMGM, make sure to take advantage of their fantastic special offer: new customers can get $158 in bonus bets after wagering $5!
NBA Player Prop Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 27.5 Points -120 at BetMGM
Jaren Jackson Jr. Player Prop
Our friend Jaren Jackson Jr. has the unenviable job of working as his team’s lead scoring option against the Miami Heat tonight. That means plenty of defensive attention from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, which usually ends poorly. Jackson has now played four games in a row without Marcus Smart, Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, and while his points average (26.8) is solid, this is a prime sell-high spot following three big games. I’m fading him as a scorer tonight, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.
Miami’s defense is legit. On the year, the Heat rank 10th in defensive rating (113) and 29th in pace (97.6). They rank fifth (110.8) and 29th (94.4) over the last seven as well. Jackson has cleared the 26-point threshold we need him to stay under tonight just once in eight games versus Miami.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jaren Jackson Jr. under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 25.5 is priced at only -125 (55.6%) at Fanatics — which is worse than the true odds of -132 (56.9%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 24.5 for -132 (56.9%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 25.5 Points -125 at Fanatics
Kyle Kuzma Player Prop
I’ll admit that I’m getting a bit aggressive with this Kyle Kuzma player prop. His points prop is trading at only 18.5 today, well below his season average (21.8), but we’re still playing the under due to the tough matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Kuzma has scored 19 or more in just three of his 12 matchups versus Gobert and in just one of three matchups since he joined the Wizards. Kuzma averaged only 15.7 points over that three-game sample.
Minnesota’s defense should mostly lock down the paint, which bodes poorly for Kuz. This year, Kuzma has taken 51.3% of his shots in the paint. A whopping 41.7% of his makes came in the restricted area alone.
Minnesota ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game this year (46) and over the last seven games (42.9). Minnesota’s defense has allowed the third-fewest made field goals in the restricted area this year (15.2) and over the last seven (13.4) as well.
With Kuzma’s best zone well-defended, Minnesota’s ninth-slowest pace this year (98.6) and eighth-slowest pace over the last seven (97.1) will have even more of an effect. Worse, the Wizards will have to play again tomorrow, so if the Wolves get out to a big lead, don’t expect to see much of Kuzma in the second half.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 18.5 Points -102 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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