Last night’s article went 0-3 for the first time in I can’t remember how long. It’s been since at least November. Anyway, my full card endured the losing night a bit better, bringing my cards to 180-155-10 (+33.9u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Damian Lillard, Saddiq Bey and Jalen Brunson. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Damian Lillard & More
Saddiq Bey Player Prop
The Atlanta Hawks will host the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Thunder are in a bit of a bind scheduling-wise — they just scored a big win over the Boston Celtics last night, but it was a very competitive game, and both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort had to play 37-plus minutes.
It’s fair to expect Oklahoma City’s exceptional defense to look a little bit sluggish tonight — the Thunder have played without rest three times this year, and they coughed up 112 points to the Pistons, 91 to the Trail Blazers and 120 to the Knicks. I expect one of Atlanta’s wings, Saddiq Bey, to put together a solid game.
The Thunder are one of the NBA’s most vulnerable teams in the corner and on the wing. They allow the third-most corner 3-pointers per game (4.5) and the 12th-most above-the-break 3-pointers per game (9.4).
Those are both zones where Bey shines — he isn’t the world’s most efficient corner shooter, but he does lead the Hawks in volume from that spot. Bey scored exactly 15 points when he faced the Thunder earlier this season. He is averaging 18.3 points per game against the Thunder when playing at least 24 minutes.
You’ll find Bey priced at -105 to go over the 13.5 at DraftKings. I’m not very interested in that line. Instead, I want the over 12.5 at ESPNBet — Bey has cleared the 13-point threshold in 19 of his 32 appearances this year (59.4%), better than the implied odds of 57.5%. It’s also important to note that De’Andre Hunter is out, freeing up more minutes for Bey. Bey has cleared the 13-point mark in eight of his 12 appearances without Hunter for Atlanta. Hunter’s absence also thrusts Bey back into the starting five, and when he starts, Bey has cleared the 12.5 in 13 of 20 games (65%). I’m laddering this one to 15 (+120 at DraftKings) as well.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Saddiq Bey Over 12.5 Points -135 at ESPNBet
Damian Lillard Player Prop
Hoo boy. The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks should put on another show tonight, but something we haven’t seen much of in their meetings this year: Damian Lillard assists. Lillard has tallied six, five and seven assists over their three previous meetings despite playing 36-plus minutes each time. With the Milwaukee Bucks on the front end of a back-to-back set, I don’t expect Lillard to buck that trend, and OddsShopper Premium doesn’t, either.
Indiana may not play effective defense, but the team at least limits assists to point guards. The Pacers rank eighth in assists allowed per game to the position this year (8.1) and second over the last seven games (7.3).
Scheduling and matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Damian Lillard under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 7.5 is priced at only -125 (55.6%) at Caesars, which is worse than the true odds of -137 (57.8%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 7.5 priced down at -158 (61.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Damian Lillard Under 7.5 Assists -125 at Caesars
Jalen Brunson Player Prop
The Chicago Bulls suffered an embarrassing blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last night. They’ll have to get right back in action against the New York Knicks this evening. The silver lining is that last night’s blowout allowed them to keep all over their starters at 30 minutes or below, with backup shooting guard Ayo Dosunmu leading the team in floortime.
Despite the big loss, Chicago limited Philadelphia’s starting point guard, Tyrese Maxey, to only 21 points, well below his season average (25.9). That’s been one of the Bulls’ few strengths all season — they have allowed the fewest points per to the position on the year (20.3) and through the last 15 games (20.6).
As a result, we’re fading Jalen Brunson as a scorer, especially with his point total set to 25.5. He has taken on the Bulls three times since joining the Knicks but is yet to do so this season. Last year, he averaged 21.3 points per game against them, surpassing the 26-point mark just once. Brunson has stayed under the 26-point mark in 21 of 33 starts this year (63.6%).
Brunson may be averaging 25.6 points per game this year, but his median showing of 24 is far less impressive. Further, Brunson averages just 24.2 points per game at home, and he has stayed under the 25.5 in nine of his 13 appearances at Madison Square Garden (69.2%). While New York’s decision to replace an inefficient, high-usage wing in RJ Barrett with a lower-usage but more efficient alternative in OG Anunoby may lead to more opportunities for Brunson in the future, don’t expect that to materialize tonight.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 25.5 Points +100 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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