Well, after starting this week 2-1, yesterday’s article went 1-2, and, in conjunction with picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards dipped to 266-252-15 (+30.9u) on the season. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real time to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Kyle Kuzma. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kyle Kuzma & More
Devin Vassell Player Prop
The San Antonio Spurs will host the Orlando Magic tonight. The Spurs have a somewhat sketchy injury report, as both Keldon Johnson and Zach Collins are questionable, but their potential absences aren’t enough for me to feel any less confident about fading Devin Vassell at the current market price today.
The Magic are a slow-paced and reasonably efficient defensive team. Orlando ranks only 22nd in pace this year (98.6) because of its quick start — the Magic rank last over the last 15 (95.7) and 29th over the last seven (95). Meanwhile, they rank sixth in defensive rating on the year (112) but have dropped to 12th over the last 15 (114.9) and 16th over the last seven (117.1).
Despite Orlando’s recent defensive woes, the Magic have still managed to limit opposing guards. Orlando ranks fourth in points per game allowed to shooting guards this year (21.3) and 13th over the last 15 (22). The Magic held Bradley Beal to nine points on Sunday and Tyler Herro to 12 on the Sunday before last.
Orlando will right the ship defensively soon, and tonight’s game versus the Spurs is a great get-right spot for the team to do so.
A big part of this NBA player prop pick is the market. We’re able to buy Vassell to stay under the 20.5 at odds of -125 on DraftKings. Vassell has stayed under this mark in 23 of his 42 appearances this year (54.8%). This spot is a good one to sell high on Vassell because he has averaged 20.7 points per game through his last seven contests on unsustainable shooting splits of 53/41/75. Vassell is shooting 47/36/81 this year and is a career 44/37/81 shooter.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Devin Vassell Under 20.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
Kyle Kuzma Player Prop
The Washington Wizards are not good. They’ll host the Los Angeles Clippers this evening but are trading as 12-point home dogs. The Clippers have been surprisingly good this year — or maybe just surprisingly healthy — and it shows on the defensive end. The Clippers rank 11th in defensive rating on the year (113.6) and ninth through the last 15 games (114). They also rank 26th in pace this year (98.3) and 25th over the last 15 (97.2). These factors combine to make it a good spot to sell Kyle Kuzma — OddsShopper Premium recommends buying him to stay under 22.5 points, and I do, too.
Kuzma is averaging 21.9 points per game this year with a median showing of 22. He has stayed under the 22.5 in 27 of 46 total starts (58.7%) and in 15 of 21 starts at home (71.4%), where he averages only 21.1 points per game.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Kyle Kuzma under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 22.5 is priced at only -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings — which is worse than the true odds of -125 (55.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over under 22.5 for -141 (58.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 22.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
De’Aaron Fox Player Prop
De’Aaron Fox might be averaging 27.5 points per game this year, but he’ll be lucky to sniff that number versus the stingy and slow-paced Miami Heat. After opening his prop total at 25.5, FanDuel was the first to raise it to 26.5, and I quickly bought the under. Fox has scored more than 26.5 points in just one of 10 games versus the Heat.
Of course, Fox is a better player than he was early in his career, but his most recent showings versus the Heat don’t inspire much confidence. Fox last played the Heat early in the 2022-23 campaign, and he tallied only 17 points on shooting splits of 35/0/100. He scored 24 on 42/0/93 in their meeting before that one.
Fox just won’t get many scoring opportunities tonight. The Heat rank 29th in pace both on the year (97.5) and through the last 15 games (95.7). Their defense ranks 13th (114.3) and 15th (115.9) through those samples — which isn’t great, but that doesn’t tell the full story. The Heat allow role players to get open looks in hopes of shutting down their higher-usage teammates.
Miami’s recent games demonstrate how their defensive approach works. Against the Suns, they allowed Eric Gordon to go for 23 points while holding Kevin Durant (20) and Devin Booker (22) below their season averages. Against the Knicks, they held Julius Randle to 19 (but did allow Jalen Brunson to cook for 32 after failing to respect him early). Lastly, against the Grizzlies, they let Vince Williams Jr. score 25 while holding Jaren Jackson Jr. to only 15.
NBA Player Prop Pick: De’Aaron Fox Under 26.5 Points -118 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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