We’re off to a shaky start this week on article plays, but we’re up overall thanks to supplementary picks pulled OddsShopper Premium. But with a larger slate offering more spots to choose from tonight, I’m optimistic that today’s article will pop off. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for James Harden, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Green & More
Jalen Green Player Prop
Let’s kick things off with an NBA player prop pick that I saw popping in the OddsShopper Premium model today with which I agree strongly for projection-based reasons. Jalen Green is one of the hottest commodities in the NBA at the moment, but he has been two completely different players at home versus on the road. He draws a tough road contest with the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.
Green’s points prop is trading at 26.5 with the under priced at only -115 on both Caesars and bet365. These two books are some of the model’s best by ROI, so you know this pick is a good one. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced at a much stingier -139. Fanatics has already dropped Green’s total to 25.5 for -110. The market doesn’t expect a great game from Green tonight, but public books are hoping to cash in on the hype.
The Green hype is somewhat justified, but it’s probably not justified in this spot. After averaging 18 points per game before the All-Star Break, Green has stepped up following an injury to Alperen Sengün and has since averaged 24.6 points per game. Still, that’s well above where his points total (26.5) is trading today. Green’s home and away splits are also catastrophic: he averages 20.5 at home but only 18.6 on the road.
The road just isn’t kind to Green. In three road games without Sengün, he cleared the 26.5 just once — and it’s not like he was playing good defenses! The Washington Wizards allowed him to score 42, the Atlanta Hawks held him to 26 and the San Antonio Spurs kept him to 16. Green is averaging just 15.8 points per game versus the Oklahoma City Thunder since entering the NBA and 14 since the start of this year. It’s time to sell high.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Green Under 26.5 Points -115 at Caesars
James Harden Player Prop
When I begin handicapping each NBA slate, I glance at the schedule, the injury report and OddsShopper Premium all before beginning my original research. Today, I liked the Jalen Green play listed above, but I also liked this James Harden play. We’re able to get him to stay under 8.5 assists for only +100 at DraftKings.
Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers have been reeling since the All-Star Break, and, with Russell Westbrook back in the fold, Harden’s assist production should dip. He is averaging 8.2 assists per game alongside Westbrook this season.
Our tools’ process is less subjective than my analysis. It takes the odds from across the market; adjusts for factors such as hold, book sharpness and more; and uses that information to produce a fair price for each bet. When we see a bet trading for longer odds than the fair price, or true odds, we pounce. That’s what we see with this Harden bet today:
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine!
Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can do so for 50% off your first month ($24.98) or week ($7.48) with promo code “PLAYBALL”. That’s far less expensive than the +EV tools that our competitors are offering, even after the discount ends!
NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 8.5 Assists +100 at DraftKings
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
This Jonathan Kuminga player prop had marginal positive expected value (+EV) in the model this morning, but it has more value for non-market-based reasons. Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors are in a must-win situation but are playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, drawing a tough road matchup with the Orlando Magic. Orlando is favored by four.
Despite Golden State’s dire straits, we’re fading Kuminga on the points market by backing him to stay under 16.5. It’s a number he was clearing with ease up until a few weeks ago, but his relatively limited bag of tricks has caught up to him. Kuminga is a talented interior scorer, but that’s pretty much all he’s doing — 71% of his field goal attempts this year have come in the paint.
Kuminga’s reliance on interior scoring is a problem versus this Orlando defense. The Magic rank third in defensive rating on the year (110.9) but are first since the All-Star Break (106.8). That corresponds to an improvement in interior defense — Orlando ranks eighth in points allowed in the paint per game on the year (47.7) but is fourth since the All-Star Break (44.1).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 16.5 Points +100 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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