Let’s go — yesterday’s NBA player props story went 3-0, cashing unders for Miles Bridges and Pascal Siakam along with an over for Isaiah Stewart. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Paolo Banchero, Luguentz Dort and Deni Avdija. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Paolo Banchero & More
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
The Orlando Magic will take on the tanking Washington Wizards tonight, so I expect big things from Paolo Banchero. The Magic just played last night, scoring a tighter-than-necessary 12-point win over the Charlotte Hornets, but they only needed to use Banchero for 33 minutes. He still turned in a 22-point showing in the win.
This matchup is a dream spot for Banchero. The Wizards have been rolling over in the paint this year, allowing an NBA-high 59.6 points in the paint per game and 21.4 made field goals per game in the restricted area. Those numbers have only increased lately — over the last 15, they have coughed up 63.6 points in the paint and 22.3 made field goals in the restricted area.
Those trends correspond to the second-most points allowed per game to power forwards (29). Shipping off Daniel Gafford and the injury to Marvin Bagley III leave the Wizards severely undersized, which Banchero should exploit on Wednesday night.
Banchero’s splits also point to value here. Banchero is already averaging 22.9 points per game this year, slightly higher than his total (22.5), but that jumps to 23.7 when he plays on the road and 24.5 when he plays without rest. He is averaging only 19.3 points per game versus Washington this year, but that rate is skewed by an outlier six-point showing against them — he boasts a median of 24 against them over three games.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 Points -105 at Fanatics
Deni Avdija Player Prop
We’re sticking with tonight’s Wizards game for this NBA player prop pick. Sure, the Gafford trade and Bagley injury will likely help Avdija come down with a few extra boards, but his total is far too high at 8.5. Avdija has cleared this total in just 11 of 58 appearances this year. He failed to clear the six-rebound threshold against Orlando over a three-game sample this season, too. I like this under, as does OddsShopper Premium. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Deni Avdija under today due to the clear market inefficiency. The under 8.5 rebounds will cost you -133 (57.1%) at Caesars, which is a better number than the true odds of -141 (58.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 8.5 for -172 (63.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Deni Avdija Under 8.5 Rebounds -133 at Caesars
Luguentz Dort Player Prop
Let’s wrap up today’s NBA player prop card with a pick for Oklahoma City Thunder wing Luguentz Dort. Dort draws a matchup with the injury-riddled Portland Trail Blazers, who list most key of their key veterans, like Deandre Ayton (doubtful), Jerami Grant (questionable) and Malcolm Brogdon (out) on the injury report. The injury-riddled Thunder are allowing the third-most steals (9.4) and the fourth-most blocks (7) per game over the last seven.
Dort hasn’t done much defensively versus the Trail Blazers this season, but he also hasn’t had to play much because the Thunder usually win by a ton. He is averaging 0.7 steals and blocks per game versus the Blazers but is averaging 1.5 per game on the year. He has gone over the 1.5 in 26 of his 61 games (42.6%), which isn’t a great hit rate. He is also averaging 1.7 per game since the All-Star Break, going over the 1.5 in three of seven.
Dort spends the majority of his minutes at small forward, which also bodes well for his defensive output today. The Blazers have coughed up the third-most blocks (1.2) and 11th-most steals (1.6) to the position this year. Over the last seven, they have coughed up the most blocks (1.6) and ninth-most steals (1.7) to the position.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Steals & Blocks +110 at DraftKings
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