Don’t let the light night fool you. There’s solid value across the two NBA games, including a close-out scenario brewing in Boston. Elsewhere, the Mavericks and Clippers return to Los Angeles with the series knotted at two games apiece. Here are the top two NBA player props for Wednesday, May 1, with help from our OddsShopper Premium tools. We focus on Derrick Jones Jr. and Al Horford, so check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Al Horford & More
Al Horford Player Prop
This is a massive opportunity to clear out the visiting Heat and gain any rest advantage ahead of the next round. Boston returns home after taking both games in Miami. Unfortunately, the Celtics did lose Kristaps Porzingis due to a calf injury, so Al Horford should start tonight.
That is going to increase the amount of action on his overs; with expectations of Horford filling in both minutes and production that’s lost with Porzingis’ absence. It’s already pushed his rebound total above any number he’s hit in this series, which opens a spot to attack.
Horford’s over/under for rebounds currently sits at 9.5 with a +102 return to the under at DraftKings. That’s significant because the true odds for this play are -107 and no other book is offering anything that’s plus money. By using the OddsShopper tool to identify this edge against the market, we can ensure long-term profit.
We may see a slight increase in minutes for Horford, but overall it shouldn’t change. He will still give way to Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman in more of a rotation.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Al Horford Under 9.5 Points (+102 at DraftKings)
Derrick Jones Jr. Player Prop
This series has been tight despite two superstars being banged up or missing. Be it Kawhi Leonard out for tonight or Luka Doncic playing through a knee injury, neither team has gained any edge or separation. Derrick Jones Jr. comes in with a points + rebounds + assists line at 14.5, a number he obliterated last game in Dallas. He’s only hit it twice this series, failing to in Game 3 — also at home.
The reality for the Mavericks is relying far more on Kyrie Irving than Jones to pick up scoring slack. An injured Doncic is still better than none at all, so don’t expect him to have minimal impact on the floor either. Jones will be capped at eight or nine shots, and making half of those hasn’t translated into covering the total — as we saw in Game 3.
There’s the role player narrative that Jones will battle tonight too — as we should see Irving take over not just from a scoring but also a ball-handling and control standpoint. Again, he’s just switching out with Doncic, so nothing changes for guys around them like Jones. Jones isn’t going to see an increase in shot volume and needs to grab five boards minimum to clear his PRA.
The above total is an overreaction to his previous game, not a reflection of what he faces on the road. The OddsShopper premium tool identified two books offering us even money versus everywhere else at -105 or worse. Beat the market and build a bank roll; it’s that simple.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Derrick Jones Jr. Under 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+100 at BetMGM)
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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