Yesterday saw us split 1-1, bringing us to 17-9 on NBA player props since May 6. That’s a solid run, but it can be better, and I’m hoping to improve with a 2-0 sweep tonight. For this evening’s Western Conference Finals matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks, I’ve dug up two NBA player props with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium and our NBA +EV betting tools. Let’s dive into my NBA player prop picks for Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks — or use our NBA player prop betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Mike Conley & More
Jaden McDaniels Player Prop
The Dallas Mavericks have struggled to defend the corner all postseason, allowing exactly four corner 3’s per game on a 36.4% conversion rate. While that isn’t enough of a defensive flaw to have cost them the series against the Los Angeles Clippers or the Oklahoma City Thunder, it is a meaningful vulnerability the Wolves will look to exploit.
Minnesota’s best corner shooter in the postseason has been Jaden McDaniels. The lockdown defender is also averaging 0.9 corner 3’s per game with a 43.5% conversion rate. His game has been pretty much corner 3’s and open shots near the rim, as 95.5% of his made field goals have come in those zones. His efficient shot selection bodes well for us tonight.
McDaniels should hit between two and three open 3’s. Still, I prefer backing him on the total points market due to his postseason average (12.4) far exceeding tonight’s prop total (10.5). Sure, his median is still a 10-point showing, but he is coming off a pair of 20-plus point games versus Denver and should stay hot tonight.
With Dallas now having to defend Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, expect their defense to adjust, possibly creating more open looks for McDaniels. The Mavericks have avoided a series against a duo of such lethal perimeter weapons thus far, and it could cause headaches for them in Game 1.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 10.5 Points -122 at DraftKings
For the best price currently available, check out our Jaden McDaniels points live odds page!
Mike Conley Player Prop
Mike Conley averaged 5.9 assists per game in the regular season and is averaging 6.5 through 10 postseason games this year. He has cleared the 6.5 in exactly half of his starts, landing on seven in three and on six in two. However, he is averaging 8.8 potential assists per game, fewer than Edwards (9.7), but is averaging more actual assists than him (5.9).
Our NBA player prop betting model recommends fading Conley on the assist markets. He is trading at odds of -130 to stay under 6.5 assists on BetMGM. Meanwhile, most other public books have this between -135 and -160. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one at -160, giving us plenty of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s NBA +EV betting tools estimate that this bet should be priced at -140. That estimate is called the bet’s true odds (a breakeven price). The tools reach that conclusion by indexing the odds from across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and using that information to generate an estimate.
Whenever a wager is trading for odds longer than that fair market price, it is +EV, which is exactly what we’re seeing with this Conley under. Don’t just play this at any book, though — you’re missing out on potential returns by not buying the -130 at BetMGM.
Sports bettors new to +EV betting may not be used to the volume required to turn a profit. Since your edge is usually slight, you’ll make money over the long term, but it is a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists -130 at BetMGM
For the best price currently available, see our Mike Conley assists live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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