We split yesterday as Trey Murphy III ruined the perfect night, but we have a couple of strong plays today. Let’s sweep the board with two more NBA player props, looking specifically at the OddsShopper NBA betting model. There are a few later games that jump out, with the Warriors in San Antonio and the Knicks a short favorite at home against the Thunder. We are looking to stay ahead of the market price and maximize our long-term returns. Here are the top two NBA bets from our OddsShopper premium experience!
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jonathan Kuminga & More
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
The Warriors are currently 8.5-point road favorites against the awful Spurs. San Antonio has been eliminated for quite some time and boasts the third-worst record in the NBA – worst in the West. That makes them super dangerous against a team dealing with playoff pressures like the Warriors.
Time is running out for Golden State despite winning three straight games. It is doing everything to keep Houston off its backs in the No. 10 seed while trying to climb ahead of the Lakers. The Warriors split their two games with the Spurs in March, actually losing at Golden State but winning in Texas.
In both of those games, Jonathan Kuminga was limited to fewer than 5.5 rebounds. That head-to-head performance is a helpful metric in looking past some volatility in the rebound market. We’ve seen Kuminga clear this 5.5 total a couple of times by a rather large margin, but he’s still averaging a full rebound (4.6) less this month than tonight’s total.
Despite a couple of high points easily defined as variance, we find value in going under the 5.5-rebound total. Kuminga has cleared this total in just four of 13 games this month and is either going to be a third or fourth option on the boards or see some time on the floor cut due to a blowout.
Thanks to OddsShopper, we see the break in the market price. The true odds for under 5.5 Kuminga boards are -119, but we can get this at -109 at SugarHouse. By beating the market price and every other book, we maintain a +EV edge that can build profit over time.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 5.5 Rebounds (-109 at SugarHouse)
Josh Hart Player Prop
The Knicks are also right in the middle of a playoff seeding battle, just a little higher up in the East than the Warriors out West. New York just dropped one to the Spurs but have won seven of its last 10. It hosts a Thunder team that also won seven of 10 but played its last two without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are hoping to get their All-Star leader back from a quad injury, as he’s been upgraded to questionable.
Josh Hart has had nearly 10 assists in three straight games, two with 10 and most recently eight against the Spurs. He’s shown a quick improvement in the passing game, which the Knicks have helped fuel. Hart’s scoring has dipped a little as a result, but it’s hard to ignore recent spikes in Hart’s assists totals. He enters tonight’s game with a 6.5-assist total, still a tad above his average for the month of March. He’s gone over 6.5 dimes in six of 13 games this month but has seen some strong volatility on either side. We’ve seen an 11-assist game and a one-assist game, all depending on matchup and circumstance.
The Thunder may give up their share of rebounds but should put the clamps down on Hart’s passing. In their previous game, the Knicks fell short in Oklahoma City with Hart playing 34 minutes and finishing with six assists.
OddsShopper has the true odds for this play at -116, but thanks to our advanced algorithm, we found it at -102 on FanDuel. This is how we build long-term profit and a bank roll. We stay well ahead of the market price and every other book to find the best value.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Josh Hart Under 6.5 Assists (-102 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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