The Timberwolves are desperate, and desperate teams call for bets — specifically player props — on the other team, obviously. We’ve found a great spot with the help of OddsShopper Premium for Luka Doncic bet, so let’s get into the best Timberwolves-Mavericks NBA player prop for Luka Doncic. Also, check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Timberwolves-Mavericks
Luka Doncic Player Prop | Caesars Sportsbook
It may seem foolhardy to fade Doncic given the everything about him right now, but here we are. The fact that it is an under on his 3-point shooting is even more off-kilter coming off a soon-to-be iconic 3 in Game 2 that won Dallas a second straight road matchup. Again, here we are.
Doncic demolished his previous career high by making 4.1 3’s a game in the regular season. He also made four or more in a whopping 61.4% of games.
And yet, OddsShopper gives Doncic a 57% chance of falling shy of 3.5 3’s, and that bet is +EV despite a little spot of juice at -123. How did this happen?
Well, a few things are factoring in. Doncic has actually been slightly more prone to the under than the over this postseason, going over in only 42.9% of games. He has also lost some shooting efficiency, down to 30.6% from deep and 2.8 makes per game.
There is also the matter of the Timberwolves not yet showing the defensive dominance against the Mavericks that they did in four of the seven games against Denver.
Now, one could argue Minnesota is specifically built to beat the Nuggets, not Dallas. Thus, the defense may not translate. I say bollocks — this is the best defensive team in the NBA for a reason.
The Timberwolves have adjusted gameplans well all postseason, and they can find at least a modicum of solution to at least slow down this aspect of Doncic’s game.
Most importantly, Caesars Sportsbook is offering a strong market edge with the -123 odds, well below the -135 True Odds from OddsShopper. Sharp book Pinnacle is way down at -167, and only DraftKings is in the same ballpark as Caesars. As such, Caesars is 4.2% +EV for this Doncic under on his 3’s.
For more picks, sign up for OddsShopper Premium. You can use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week (or month) for 50% off (regular price of $14.95 weekly, $49.95 monthly)! Got more questions? Read our guide to using +EV tools!
NBA Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Under 3.5 3-Pointers (-123 at Caesars Sportsbook)
For the best price currently available, see our Luka Doncic live odds page!
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
