With the NBA competing against both baseball and the NCAA men’s basketball tournament’s Final Four, the schedule makers opted for a two-game card this evening. Still, bettors can find some value on tonight’s NBA player prop markets. The below plays for Mavericks-Heat and Pelicans-Clippers stand out. DraftKings has left too much value on the Kyrie Irving and C.J. McCollum player prop markets. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
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Best Mavericks-Heat NBA Player Prop Tonight | Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving O/U 1.5 Steals
The Miami Heat have listed both point guard Kyle Lowry and center Bam Adebayo as questionable for tonight’s game. Lowry and Adebayo rank first and third, respectively, in passes made. Throwing other players into the rotation may make the team’s life difficult, especially since almost every game is a must-win for Miami if the team wants to avoid the play-in tournament. The team’s turnover ratio is 1% higher when Adebayo sits and 1.4% higher when Lowry sits.
Kyrie Irving has a chance to exploit Miami in the steal department. The Heat have already allowed the most steals per game to shooting guards through the last 15 contests (2.3) and may allow even more due to their potentially depleted roster. Irving, a former Eastern Conference regular, has played the Heat 27 times and is averaging 1.8 steals per game. He averaged 1.3 steals per game against them with the Brooklyn Nets but beat this number in three of his six starts.
The books have set this prop total correctly (1.5) but have left a squeeze of value on the over at +160 (38.5%). Irving isn’t a lock to swipe the ball twice, but Miami’s recent struggles and lengthy injury report point to some value here. Irving cashed this bet against the Heat at a 50% clip with the Nets. He’ll also benefit from a massive workload as the Dallas Mavericks are fighting for their playoff lives every night, which may give him the extra possessions necessary to cash the over.
Best Mavericks-Heat Player Prop: Kyrie Irving Over 1.5 Steals +160 for 0.25 Unit at DraftKings
Best Clippers-Pelicans NBA Player Prop Tonight | C.J. McCollum
C.J. McCollum O/U 0.5 Steals
The New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Los Angeles Clippers one night after Tyronn Lue’s squad tapped out early against the Memphis Grizzlies. The move helped prevent Kawhi Leonard from overworking himself, as he recorded only 18 minutes of action in the loss. Still, the Clippers enter this one at a rest disadvantage, and they won’t have the benefit of playing on their home floor.
The Clippers already struggle with turnovers. They have allowed the fourth-most steals per game to their opponents (7.9) and the most to point guards (2.2) this year. Things have only gotten worse lately — they have allowed 2.7 steals per game to the position through their last 15 games. Memphis’ Tyus Jones and Ja Morant combined to average 2.5 steals per game across their recent two-game series. C.J. McCollum also racked up two steals in a road start against the Clippers last week.
McCollum has some impressive streaks going against the Clippers. He has stolen the ball at least once in his last nine starts against them while averaging 1.6 per game. He has also stolen the ball at least once in his last seven starts against their new point guard, Russell Westbrook. The books have stacked the juice on the over accordingly, but the -220 (68.8%) at DraftKings Sportsbook is still too low given McCollum’s ongoing streaks.
Best Clippers-Pelicans Player Prop: C.J. McCollum Over 0.5 Steals -220 for 0.55 Unit at DraftKings
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