With just a few days left before the NBA’s play-in tournament, bettors don’t have much time left to fade the association’s worst teams. Unfortunately, with most teams resting their stars, NBA player prop betting gets much harder. However, the below plays for 76ers-Hawks and Magic-Nets stand out. DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Dejounte Murray and Dorian Finney-Smith player prop markets, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
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Best 76ers-Hawks NBA Player Prop Tonight | Dejounte Murray
Dejounte Murray O/U 19.5 Points
The Atlanta Hawks can secure the eighth seed with a win tonight. They’ll face the Philadelphia 76ers, who have already locked up the third seed, and who just lost to the Miami Heat last night. Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, Miami’s second and third players by usage rate, combined to score 48 points in that game.
Dejounte Murray and Trae Young, Atlanta’s leaders in usage rate, should cook the 76ers tonight. Without anything to play for, and without rest, the 76ers should rest key starters like Joel Embiid and trust their reserves. The Hawks don’t have the luxury of seeding security but do have the luxury of rest.
Murray has gone for 20-plus points in 39 of his 73 starts (53.4%) this year. He is also averaging 22 points per game in contests that the Hawks eventually win. We’re getting Murray at a bit of a discount because he beat this number against the 76ers only once in three starts, but all of those games came back in November, and the 76ers still had a reason to play defense then.
Best 76ers-Hawks Player Prop: Dejounte Murray Over 19.5 Points -105 for 0.52 Unit at DraftKings
Best Magic-Nets NBA Player Prop Tonight | Dorian Finney-Smith
Dorian Finney-Smith O/U 7.5 Points
The Brooklyn Nets haven’t locked up the sixth seed quite yet. They need to at least keep pace with the Miami Heat, who are one game behind them. That means they have a chance to clinch a playoff bid with a win over the Orlando Magic tonight. If the recent trends are any indication, Dorian Finney-Smith should have a reasonably solid game.
The Orlando Magic have stopped defending the corner. Over the last three games, the Magic have allowed the third-most corner 3’s per game (5). They allowed Cleveland’s reserve power forward, Lamar Stevens, to rack up 13 points and 2 3’s last night. Cedi Osman scored 19 on 4-for-6 from deep. Both players did a majority of their damage from the corner.
While Finney-Smith isn’t a high-usage player, he does rank third on the Nets in corner 3’s made per game (0.8). Finney-Smith is averaging 1.4 3’s and 7.2 points per game for the Nets as well. The averages aren’t great, but every other sportsbook — including Pinnacle, a sharp book, have Finney-Smith’s points total set to 8.5. That means we’re getting a discount at FanDuel. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Magic-Nets Player Prop: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 7.5 Points -136 for 0.5 Unit at FanDuel
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