The Brooklyn Nets head back to New York after dropping their first two games against the Philadelphia 76ers. Game 1 saw them blown out by Philadelphia’s perimeter shooting, but Game 2 saw them play improved perimeter defense — but worse perimeter offense. Fortunately for sports bettors, DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Royce O’Neale and Tobias Harris player prop markets for Game 3. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Nets-76ers Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Royce O’Neale
Royce O’Neale O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
The Brooklyn Nets shot 13-for-29 from beyond the arc in Game 1. They then shot 13-for-42 from beyond the arc in Game 2. In his postgame press conference, head coach Jacque Vaughn told reporters that he was proud of his team for sticking to the gameplan and taking perimeter shots — even if those looks didn’t end up falling for them. With a trip back home in store, bettors should expect big things from Royce O’Neale.
O’Neale saw the volume you should look for when targeting NBA player props. After shooting 2-for-5 from the floor and 0-for-2 from beyond the arc in Game 1, he shot 2-for-11 from the floor and 2-for-9 from beyond the arc in Game 2. More importantly, he played eight more minutes in Game 2 than in Game 1. Although the efficiency is concerning, O’Neale made 38.9% of this 3-pointer this year, good for 2.1 per game.
Vaughn specifically lauded O’Neale after the game. “He did a heck of a job on both ends of the floor tonight,” he told reporters, “I love the shots that Royce took — we want him to take them again.” The veteran also finished third on the Nets in box plus-minus despite his inefficient shooting at -6. Vaughn had O’Neale playing 27.2 minutes per game after the All-Star Break, and he averaged 1.9 3-pointers on a 35.4% conversion rate through that stretch.
The 76ers are clearly content to let O’Neale take open looks. Per the tracking stats, nine of O’Neale’s 11 shots went uncontested. He drew primary coverage from Joel Embiid, who isn’t a great perimeter defender, and Jalen McDaniels, who grades as a breakeven defender in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings. Expect O’Neale to get plenty of open looks again on Wednesday — and expect him to actually make them this time.
Best Nets-76ers Player Prop: Royce O’Neale 2+ 3-Pointers -105 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Best Nets-76ers Player Prop: Royce O’Neale 3+ 3-Pointers +350 for 0.25 Unit at FanDuel
Nets-76ers Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Tobias Harris
Tobias Harris O/U 14.5 Points
Through two playoff appearances against the Brooklyn Nets, Tobias Harris is averaging 20.5 points per game. He has taken 14 field goals in each game as well. These numbers are far higher than the 14.7 points and 11.4 field goals that he averaged in the regular season, and they have come in a pair of incredibly slow-paced games. The 76ers and Nets have played an average of only 90.8 possessions per contest, a noticeable downtick from what both teams did in the regular season.
The math suggests Harris should regress. He is taking shots at a higher clip, and, despite the extra volume, his shooting percentage of 60.7% is far higher than the 50.1% he recorded in the regular season. Harris has also played only 65% of the minutes through the last two games. He averaged only 0.221 points per possession in the regular season, and if he continues to play the same share of the minutes, that should leave him on the field for 59 possessions — good for just 13 points at his regular-season clip.
The new-look Nets have even shut down Harris recently. In a mid-February battle between these teams, Harris shot a pathetic 1-for-9 from the floor in the Barclays Center on his way to only three points. The 76ers leaned on Joel Embiid and James Harden in that one, and they’ll likely do so again in a crucial Game 3. Harris hasn’t scored more than 14 points in the Barclays Center since the 2020-21 season. He has shot only 20% from the field in this arena through that three-game sample.
We can buy the under 14.5 at -125 (55.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced at -139 (58.2%). In last year’s playoffs, Harris put together consecutive games with 20-plus points at the start of each series before cratering to point totals of 11 and 9 in Game 3, respectively. Let’s lock this play in before the line moves to be in accordance with the rest of the market. Readers who are new to DraftKings can even get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best 76ers-Nets Player Prop: Tobias Harris Under 14.5 Points -125 for 0.62 Unit at DraftKings
