The Milwaukee Bucks shockingly find themselves behind the Miami Heat after three games. They’ll look to bounce back on the road in Game 4. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is slated to return to the starting lineup, while Miami’s Jimmy Butler remains questionable. Fortunately for us, FanDuel has left too much value on the Giannis Antetokounmpo and Gabe Vincent player prop markets for Game 4. If you’re looking for more plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Bucks-Heat Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis Antetokounmpo O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
With Antetokounmpo confirmed as back in the lineup for Milwaukee, let’s target him on the player prop markets. Because the Bucks lost a home game to the Heat, they find themselves in the unenviable position of needing a road win despite their seeding advantage. The Heat have put up an admirable fight so far in this series, but that doesn’t change the fact they have been one of the NBA’s worst home teams.
The Heat’s poor performance at home isn’t immediately obvious. They went a reasonable 27-14 straight up (SU) on their home floor. However, they also went an embarrassing 16-26-2 against the spread (ATS) in their own arena. Only one team, the Dallas Mavericks, fared worse at home. Miami’s home struggles have extended to perimeter defense. The Heat have allowed the third-most 3-pointers per game this year (13.2). They have given up 0.8 more 3-pointers per game at home than on the road.
Antetokounmpo is likelier to pull up from long range as he returns from his knee injury. He made nine returns to the floor after getting at least one night off in the regular season and shot 8-for-22 from beyond the arc in those games, good for 0.9 3-pointers made per game, up from his season average of 0.7. The matchup against an aggressive Miami defense would usually bode poorly for him, but the Heat should leave him open from beyond the arc once or twice when his teammates cut toward the rim for a layup.
We’re getting this play at generous odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as well. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this over priced at -117 (53.9%). DraftKings Sportsbook has it available at -115 (53.5%). But FanDuel is content to sell the over for this NBA player prop at +106 (48.5%), giving us a healthy amount of edge relative to the other books. With a minutes restriction not out of the realm of possibilities, let’s keep our exposure to a half-unit. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager!
Best Bucks-Heat Player Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 3-Pointers +106 for 0.5 Unit at FanDuel
Bucks-Heat Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Gabe Vincent
Gabe Vincent O/U 11.5 Points
Despite earning a commanding win, the Miami Heat lost another member of their backcourt in Game 3. Victor Oladipo went down late with a season-ending knee injury, leaving them with even fewer options in the rotation, especially with Tyler Herro sidelined with a broken hand. The void in the backcourt should open up plenty of chances for Gabe Vincent to bounce back after his disappointing Game 3.
Vincent started this series strong but flopped in Miami’s blowout Game 3 win. He racked up only two points on 1-for-5 from the field in 18 minutes of action on Saturday. However, Vincent had gone 5-for-6 from the field in Game 1, leading to 15 points, and 6-for-12 in Game 2, good for 16. Although his minutes have steadily ticked down throughout the series, the new injury to Oladipo should reverse that trend.
The Bucks lost Game 3 because of their inability to limit Miami’s superstar, Jimmy Butler. Butler racked up 30 points on 12-for-19 from the field in only 28 minutes of action. He shot 4-for-4 from beyond the arc. Although he is questionable, head coach Erik Spoelstra suggested in his post-game press conference after Game 3 that Butler would’ve returned to the game if the Bucks had closed the gaps. Look for Milwaukee to play slightly more aggressive defense against Butler, potentially leaving Vincent open for a few extra looks.
Despite his Game 3 dud, Vincent should actually benefit from the return to Miami. He averaged 1.2 more points per game at home and shot 2.8% more accurately from beyond the arc. Vincent averaged a whopping 27.5 points per game when facing the Bucks in Miami this season. Although a similar high-ceiling game may not be in the cards for him, let’s spread a full unit across these prop markets at FanDuel.
Best Bucks-Heat Player Prop: Gabe Vincent Over 11.5 Points +100 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Best Bucks-Heat Player Prop: Gabe Vincent Over 15+ Points +230 for 0.25 Unit at FanDuel
