The Miami Heat blew their chance at the seventh seed, so they’ll do battle with the Chicago Bulls for the eighth seed tonight. The NBA Play-In Tournament has produced some interesting results thus far, and a few Bulls-Heat player props stand out for Friday’s play-in game — DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Patrick Williams and Tyler Herro player prop markets, respectively. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Bulls-Heat Play-In Game NBA Player Prop | Patrick Williams
Patrick Williams O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Miami’s aggressive defense, which concentrates on limiting a team’s top option, often leaves players open in the corner. As a result, the Heat allowed the most corner 3’s per game in the regular season (4.3) and the third-most since the All-Star Break (4.1). This tendency cost them in their first play-in game against the Hawks, as Atlanta poured in five corner 3’s — three from Dejounte Murray and two from Saddiq Bey.
Nobody on Chicago’s roster stands to benefit more from this tendency than Patrick Williams. Williams led the Bulls in corner 3’s attempted (1.4) and made (0.9) per game on an exceptional 60% conversion rate. He has shot 3-for-10 against the Heat so far this season, which includes one game with two treys, but a bigger game should be in store for him with Miami in an increasingly desperate situation. Williams even earned 25 minutes of playing time in Chicago’s win over the Toronto Raptors and shot 2-for-5 from beyond the arc.
Let’s lock in the over at +180 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at a slightly worse number (+176), so we’re getting a slight amount of edge relative to where this number could have been set. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets just for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Bulls-Heat Player Prop: Patrick Williams Over 1.5 3-Pointers +180 for 0.5 Unit at DraftKings
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Bulls-Heat Play-In Game NBA Player Prop | Tyler Herro
Tyler Herro O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
The Chicago Bulls have effectively limited point guards this year. They allowed the third-fewest points per game to the position on the year (21.9) and the second-fewest through the final 15 games (20.3). However, they remain vulnerable to sharpshooting point guards. Fred VanVleet just banged in seven triples against them in their previous play-in game. While the Bulls held him to only eight total field goals, VanVleet was still able to find an edge — especially in the corner.
Tyler Herro is the perfect type of point guard to target against the Bulls. He is less of a ball handler and more of a shooter, and the presence of versatile players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo allows him to focus more on getting open than setting up his teammates. Herro shot at least three triples in each of his regular-season meetings with the Bulls this season and went 11-for-27 (40.7%) overall.
Tuesday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks was a bit of an outlier performance for Kyle Lowry, and he should slide back into a lower-usage role on Friday. That should benefit Herro. Although Herro went only 2-for-9 from beyond the arc against the Hawks, it’s safe to expect some positive regression from him in the 3-point shooting department. Let’s wager enough on the over at odds of -15o at FanDuel Sportsbook to profit 0.8 units. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Bulls-Heat Player Prop: Tyler Herro Over 2.5 3-Pointers -150 for 1.2 Units
