Who saw this coming? The Boston Celtics, who began this round as the favorites to win the NBA Finals, find themselves down two games after losing to the Miami Heat twice at home. They’ll now head to South Beach for a must-win Game 3 — no team has ever recovered from a four-game deficit. If you’re searching for solid NBA player prop bets, consider targeting Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. Need more Celtics-Heat player props for Game 3? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Celtics-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown O/U 23.5 Points
If the Boston Celtics drop Game 3, they’re cooked. No one is more responsible for the Game 2 loss than Jaylen Brown. Brown shot an atrocious 7-for-23 (30.4%) and recorded a team-worst box plus-minus of -24. It marked his worst playoff performance in both metrics. However, Brown is no stranger to bouncing back, especially in the playoffs. He has scored in the teens twice before in this postseason but followed each game up by scoring at least 25. Likewise, he has recorded a negative box plus-minus grade three times and twice followed those showings up by scoring at least 25.
Brown should get back on track against a Heat team he owned in the regular season. The talented wing averaged 30.3 points per game against Miami and went for 28 in their lone meeting in Florida. Brown averaged 26.6 points per game in the regular season and is still seeing the sky-high usage necessary to warrant backing the over. Further, Brown has been drawing primary coverage from Gabe Vincent, a good-but-not-great defender, and has gone only 9-for-23 (39.1%) when taking uncontested shots. Expect more of those looks to fall in Game 3.
This is a prime buy-low spot on the betting markets as well. Brown’s points total has dipped to 23.5 across the market, but most books have the juice stacked on the over. Most, but not all. Let’s lock in the over 23.5 at -113 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at -126. If you’re yet to sign up for FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000! Make sure to take advantage of that promotion before it expires at the end of the month.
Best Celtics-Heat Player Prop: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points -113 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Celtics-Heat Game 3 NBA Player Prop | Al Horford
Al Horford O/U 8.5 Rebounds & Assists
When asked if there was any thought of pulling Al Horford for Robert Williams III late in the fourth quarter, Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla responded with a quick and assertive “No.” Although this postseason hasn’t been kind to Horford, especially as a shooter, he has still found ways to contribute, both as a passer and on the glass. Horford is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 3 assists per game in the playoffs, good for 10.3. He has beaten this number in 11 of his 15 playoff appearances this year.
The Celtics will likely place a greater emphasis on rebounding after surrendering some crucial late-game offensive boards that helped the Heat win Game 2. That should lead to a few extra minutes for Horford, likely at the expense of Grant Williams. Horford totaled 10 rebound chances and 45 passes in Game 1 but finished with only six rebounds and two assists. He racked up another 10 rebound chances and 33 passes in Game 2 but finished with only four rebounds and two assists. Positive regression in both statistical categories is likely headed in Horford’s direction.
We should trust the 36-year-old veteran to bounce back in Game 3. Horford averaged 8.8 rebounds and assists per game on the road in the regular season and 10 after the All-Star Break. He also averaged 9.4 rebounds and assists per game in Boston victories. Although the perimeter shooting hasn’t been there for him this series, I’m confident that Horford will find another way to contribute as the Celtics look to keep their season alive. Let’s wager enough on this NBA player prop to secure a half-unit profit.
Best Celtics-Heat Player Prop: Al Horford Over 8.5 Rebounds & Assists -130 for 0.65 Units at FanDuel
