Yeah, so the Boston Celtics are cooked. No team has ever come back from a three-game deficit in the playoffs, and the Celtics aren’t going to be the exception to that rule if they keep playing how they did on Sunday night. If you’re searching for solid NBA player prop bets, consider targeting Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. Need more Celtics-Heat player props for Game 4? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Celtics-Heat Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown O/U 2.5 Turnovers
The Boston Celtics are in an impossible situation. Few players looked more dispirited in their postgame press conference than Jaylen Brown. Although he repeated all the usual platitudes like playing with pride and focusing on the next game, his body language told a different story. Brown spent most of the interview slouched over and staring down at the table in front of him. Brown played 28 minutes in Game 3 and scored 12 points while turning the ball over three times. It marked the 11th time this postseason he recorded at least three turnovers.
Brown and the Celtics know they won’t win this series. Few Conference Finals matchups that start with one team winning the first three games go to five. Last year’s Western Conference Finals are an exception, but of the six penultimate series to feature an early three-game leader since 2010, only two went to five games. Brown averaged 3.2 turnovers per game in regular-season losses this year. That number has ticked up to 3.3 in the postseason.
The Miami Heat play an aggressive brand of defense that often forces opponents to cough up the ball. The Heat rank fourth in turnovers forced per game (15.4) and have forced 15 per game this series. Although the Celtics have a lot on the line come Tuesday night, don’t expect them to play like it. This team knows its playoff run will come to an early conclusion. Fade Brown on the turnover market at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re yet to sign up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Celtics-Heat Player Prop: Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Turnovers -145 for 0.7 Unit at DraftKings
Celtics-Heat Game 4 NBA Player Prop | Al Horford
Al Horford O/U 14.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
No member of the Boston Celtics has more experience than Al Horford. Even though they find themselves in an impossible situation, Horford, ever the professional, should continue to do his job. Although he has struggled with efficiency during the postseason and saw his minutes limited to 19 in Game 3, expect Joe Mazzulla to turn to this team’s elder statesman in a crisis. Horford had been averaging 6.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists (17.4) in the playoffs heading into this series.
This isn’t just a narrative pick. Horford averaged 15.3 PRA per game against the Heat in the regular season and tallied 15 PRA in Game 1. His inability to convert 3-point attempts or rebound chances cost him in Game 2, but he still finished with 8 PRA. Then, the blowout game script kept him on the bench for most of Game 3, yet he still finished with 10 PRA. While Horford may end up not finishing this game if the Heat build a big lead, he should step up early to motivate a young core desperate for veteran leadership.
Horford is the Boston Celtic least likely to phone it in on Tuesday. It’s incredibly difficult to handicap player prop markets when morale is such a big concern, as that renders positive regression much less likely, so we have to get creative with our spots in Game 4. Not every book is taking action on this market, but we can find the over 14.5 priced at -128 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is taking action on the 15.5.
Best Celtics-Heat Player Prop: Al Horford Over 14.5 PRA -128 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
