The Boston Celtics flipped the script on this series by taking Games 4 and 5 after losing Games 1 through 3. But with the series headed back to Florida, things could get dicey again for Jayson Tatum and company. We’re honing in on Marcus Smart and Caleb Martin on the player prop markets for Saturday. Want more Celtics-Heat player props for Game 6? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder! You can also get access to my full NBA betting cards, in addition to any live bets, via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Celtics-Heat Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Marcus Smart
Marcus Smart O/U 12.5 Points
Despite all odds, the Boston Celtics are still alive. They’re even favored on the road over the Miami Heat for Game 6. If the Celtics are going to keep their hot streak alive, they’ll need solid offensive production from everyone, but Marcus Smart stands out as a player they’ll need to feature more often. The injury to Malcolm Brogdon will likely either keep him sidelined or curb his workload, opening up more opportunities for Smart to put some points n the board.
Although Smart is coming off a series-high 23 points, I don’t think we’re making the mistake of buying high. Smart also beat this number in Game 1 and is averaging 14.9 points per game in the postseason. He has beaten this number in 11 of his 18 playoff starts this year. He also averaged 12.5 points per game after the All-Star Break and 14 points per game in the nine regular-season contests that Brogdon missed. The road trip doesn’t hurt Smart that much — although he was less efficient outside of Boston, he drew a higher usage rate.
We’re also getting this number at a discount. Most books, including Pinnacle, a sharp book, have this total set at 13.5 with the juice favoring the under by a healthy margin. However, we can buy the over 12.5 at -113 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Smart should have another solid game with Brogdon limited and the Heat struggling to defend the corner, where Smart often gets deployed. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Celtics-Heat Player Prop: Marcus Smart Over 12.5 Points -113 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
Celtics-Heat Game 6 NBA Player Prop | Caleb Martin
Caleb Martin O/U 19.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)
The Miami Heat have gotten a ton of run out of the undrafted Caleb Martin. He is averaging an impressive 17.6 points, 4 rebounds and 1.6 assists, or 23.2 PRA, this series. However, he has done so on unsustainable shooting splits of 59/45/100. Martin was shooting 53/39/80 in the playoffs before. He also shot 46/36/81 in the regular season while averaging only 9.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists, good for 16 PRA.
Miami’s injuries have likely led to an uptick in both playing time and production for Martin, but Game 6 of this series is a fantastic spot to fade him. Gabe Vincent nearly played in Game 5 and should see at least some minutes on Saturday night. Haywood Highsmith made a strong case for more playing time in Game 5 even if Vincent is available. Martin also struggled against Boston in the regular season and averaged 7.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 0.3 assists against them, good for only 11.1 PRA.
Let’s take advantage of a slightly off-market number. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this under priced all the way down at -133. DraftKings is hanging a relatively exploitable -115. Readers who are members of OddsShopper Insider Access saw me post this prop when it was still at -105, securing an even better deal than what’s available now. This one still has value as long as we’re beating the number available at Pinnacle. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Celtics-Heat Player Prop: Caleb Martin Under 19.5 PRA -115 for 0.75 Units at DraftKings
